Archive - Above The Fold

An underwhelming model release for OpenAI, a fiery redistricting battle for the House, and some WNBA disruptions

Aug 8 •

Kamchatka, Baba Vanga, Lobster Stew, and Basal Ganglia

Forecasting returns to its primal roots

Aug 1 •

July 2025

Is This the End of Human Exceptionalism?

From OpenAI's IMO breakthrough to Manifold's Squid Games

Jul 24 •

Manifold vs the World

The value of play money

Jul 21 •

Forecasting America

Some new American AI models and a new America Party

Jul 9 •

Forecasting Reconciliation

In Congress, in the Church, and in New York

Jul 1 •

June 2025

May 2025

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