Above The Fold

Changelog 5/8: Shop Improvements, Silicon Rewards & More

Check out our recent site updates!

May 8 • wasabipesto and Manifold Markets

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April 2026

ACX Contest x Manifold

The Astral Codex Ten annual forecasting competition was my introduction to the world of forecasting, several years back.

Apr 29 • Ben

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Forecasting California

Golden State politics are back

Apr 20 • Ben

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Announcing Manifest 2026!

Join us in Berkeley, CA on June 12-14

Apr 16 • Manifold Markets

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Forecasting AI Economics

IPOs, valuation markets, and the prospects of an AI bubble

Apr 11 • Ben

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March 2026

Beyond the Fold

Forecasting the unfalsifiable.

Mar 30 • Sahaj

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All Flanks, No Front

On Britain's safeguards, and their failure.

Mar 17 • Sahaj

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Manifold Takes the Oscars

It's too late to watch the films in theaters but not too late to trade on them

Mar 12 • Ben

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Forecasting Texas

The bellwether state for the midterms this fall

Mar 3 • Ben

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Forecasting Operation Fury

On the markets, the metagame, and what 47% doesn't tell you.

Mar 1 • Sahaj

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February 2026

Anthropic vs the Pentagon

Forecasting the standoff

Feb 26 • Ben

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Above the Pitch

FIFA theatrics and the Premier league's annual tradition

Feb 25 • Sahaj

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