Archive - Above The Fold

Above the Fold, From Alcatraz to Zuppi

Plans for a new (old) prison, and turmoil in the non-profit world

May 6 •

April 2025

March 2025

The Signal and the Denoiser

The Signal group chat scandal buries the lede on growing US-Iran tensions, and new diffusion models show breakthrough performance in Ghiblifying things.

Mar 28 •

Manifest 2025 Announcement

Buy tickets now! June 6th - 8th

Mar 22 •

and

Manifold Markets

Above the Fold, Cards of Gold

What markets think will happen to the "Gold Card" pathway to citizenship, the Department of Education, and the rule of law in the US

Mar 21 •

The Government Probably Isn't Shutting Down

Shutdown threats and called bluffs, Chinese AI developments, and a battle in higher ed.

Mar 14 •

I bet against a space launch as I cheered it on

It changed how I bet on events I care about, and I learned something about balancing profit and emotion

Mar 12 •

Recession Odds Skyrocket, Sky Rocket Odds Recede

Prediction markets weather a rough week on a number of fronts

Mar 7 •

February 2025

Waclaud at the Oscars

Where the AI starts to beat us at our own games

Feb 27 •

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