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Jimmy Carter's 100th Birthday!
Carter did what he once had a 2% chance of doing: becoming the first centenarian president! A retrospective by Jacob Cohen (@Conflux).
Oct 1
•
Jacob Cohen
11
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Jimmy Carter's 100th Birthday!
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September 2024
Cash prizes are here!
Our biggest announcement ever!
Sep 25
•
Manifold Markets
16
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Cash prizes are here!
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Did the markets expect Trump to blame Harris for cat-eating in Ohio?
How did the Harris-Trump debate affect prediction market odds and fact checks
Sep 11
•
Manifold Markets
14
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Did the markets expect Trump to blame Harris for cat-eating in Ohio?
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August 2024
RFK, DNC, TMZ … WTF?
Beyoncé was 95% likely to be the DNC surprise guest — but didn’t show? Meanwhile, RFK Jr. dropped out — but only in certain states? An explanation of…
Aug 27
•
Jacob Cohen
9
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RFK, DNC, TMZ … WTF?
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Was Walz Winning Weird?
The veepstakes in retrospective, the fate of the Harris-Walz ticket, and more: a politics update by Jacob Cohen (@Conflux).
Aug 8
•
Jacob Cohen
12
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Was Walz Winning Weird?
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July 2024
The Kamala Harris Veepstakes
Candidates, couches, and coconuts: a politics update by Jacob Cohen (@Conflux).
Jul 30
•
Jacob Cohen
10
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The Kamala Harris Veepstakes
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Forecasting a Post-Biden World
It’s Joever, as the kids say — Joever, Bidone. But who will win the election now, and what’s next for America? A politics piece by Jacob Cohen…
Jul 22
•
Manifold Markets
25
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Forecasting a Post-Biden World
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Biden’s Paths Forward, According to Manifold
We give him a 27% chance of being replaced as nominee. The next few days will be pivotal. A politics piece by Jacob Cohen (@Conflux).
Jul 1
•
Manifold Markets
18
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Biden’s Paths Forward, According to Manifold
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June 2024
Manifold vs. 538 vs. Everyone Else: Comparing 2024 Election Forecasts
The election’s still basically tied. But who’s winning? (A politics piece by Jacob “Conflux” Cohen)
Jun 17
•
Manifold Markets
16
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Manifold vs. 538 vs. Everyone Else: Comparing 2024 Election Forecasts
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May 2024
Dev insights - Creator Partner Program
Creators earn $10k, how the program was created, and what's next
May 24
•
Manifold Markets
15
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Dev insights - Creator Partner Program
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Last chance: get your tickets to Manifest ASAP!
June 7-9 in Berkeley, CA — ticket prices increase on May 13
May 6
•
Saul Munn
15
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Last chance: get your tickets to Manifest ASAP!
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Cash prizes for good predictions
Exploring cash prizes, uncapping charity donations (act now!), and making the mana supply sustainable.
May 1
•
Manifold Markets
16
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Cash prizes for good predictions
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