Archive - Above The Fold

Manifold Takes the Oscars

It's too late to watch the films in theaters but not too late to trade on them

Mar 12 • Ben

Forecasting Texas

The bellwether state for the midterms this fall

Mar 3 • Ben

Forecasting Operation Fury

On the markets, the metagame, and what 47% doesn't tell you.

Mar 1 • Sahaj

February 2026

January 2026

ICE Shutdown or Shut Down ICE

Forecasting the government shutdown with Above the Fold

Jan 29 • Ben

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