Archive - Above The Fold

Jimmy Carter's 100th Birthday!

Carter did what he once had a 2% chance of doing: becoming the first centenarian president! A retrospective by Jacob Cohen (@Conflux).

Oct 1 •

September 2024

Cash prizes are here!

Our biggest announcement ever!

Sep 25 •

Manifold Markets

Did the markets expect Trump to blame Harris for cat-eating in Ohio?

How did the Harris-Trump debate affect prediction market odds and fact checks

Sep 11 •

Manifold Markets

August 2024

RFK, DNC, TMZ … WTF?

Beyoncé was 95% likely to be the DNC surprise guest — but didn’t show? Meanwhile, RFK Jr. dropped out — but only in certain states? An explanation of…

Aug 27 •

Was Walz Winning Weird?

The veepstakes in retrospective, the fate of the Harris-Walz ticket, and more: a politics update by Jacob Cohen (@Conflux).

Aug 8 •

July 2024

The Kamala Harris Veepstakes

Candidates, couches, and coconuts: a politics update by Jacob Cohen (@Conflux).

Jul 30 •

Forecasting a Post-Biden World

It’s Joever, as the kids say — Joever, Bidone. But who will win the election now, and what’s next for America? A politics piece by Jacob Cohen…

Jul 22 •

Manifold Markets

Biden’s Paths Forward, According to Manifold

We give him a 27% chance of being replaced as nominee. The next few days will be pivotal. A politics piece by Jacob Cohen (@Conflux).

Jul 1 •

Manifold Markets

June 2024

Manifold vs. 538 vs. Everyone Else: Comparing 2024 Election Forecasts

The election’s still basically tied. But who’s winning? (A politics piece by Jacob “Conflux” Cohen)

Jun 17 •

Manifold Markets

May 2024

Dev insights - Creator Partner Program

Creators earn $10k, how the program was created, and what's next

May 24 •

Manifold Markets

Last chance: get your tickets to Manifest ASAP!

June 7-9 in Berkeley, CA — ticket prices increase on May 13

May 6 •

Cash prizes for good predictions

Exploring cash prizes, uncapping charity donations (act now!), and making the mana supply sustainable.

May 1 •

Manifold Markets

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