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An end to Al-Assad and Ivy league 26-year old charged with murder
Syria coup successful, Luigi Mangione charged with murder, Trump TIME's person of the year, and more
Dec 12
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Manifold Markets
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An end to Al-Assad and Ivy league 26-year old charged with murder
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South Korea announces Martial Law and Biden pardons his Son
Covering the 2 shocking events which the markets did not see coming
Dec 3
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Manifold Markets
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South Korea announces Martial Law and Biden pardons his Son
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November 2024
Seven lessons I didn't learn from election day
Harris campaigned well! Polling was good! And other null hypotheses.
Nov 15
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Manifold Markets
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Seven lessons I didn't learn from election day
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Providing Closure for Election Day
'Twas a Republican sweep. At least we have funny tweets? A politics update by Jacob Cohen (@Conflux).
Nov 6
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Jacob Cohen
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Providing Closure for Election Day
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the true meaning of election night
A preview of what Election Night will look like, and my relationship with politics, interspersed. By Jacob Cohen (@Conflux).
Nov 5
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Jacob Cohen
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the true meaning of election night
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October 2024
2024 Senate Race Rundown: Part 2
WV, MT, AZ, NV, PA, WI, OH, MI, oh my: all the elections where Democrats are defending. A politics update by Jacob Cohen (@Conflux).
Oct 29
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Jacob Cohen
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2024 Senate Race Rundown: Part 2
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Ramping up sweepstakes
Sweepcash competition, Institutional partners wanted, deals, and new markets
Oct 26
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Manifold Markets
7
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Ramping up sweepstakes
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2024 Senate Race Rundown: Part 1
Could Democrats win a Senate seat in Texas? Florida? Nebraska??? It’s not as crazy as it sounds. A politics update by Jacob Cohen (@Conflux).
Oct 23
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Jacob Cohen
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2024 Senate Race Rundown: Part 1
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Is Trump really 62% to win?
Understanding Trump's odds, Hurricanes, and Manifold's revenue
Oct 17
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Manifold Markets
18
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Is Trump really 62% to win?
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Are the 13 Keys to the White House Worthless?
Allan Lichtman’s “13 Keys” election prediction system has a disputed track record and serious flaws. But it might still be worth learning about. A…
Oct 15
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Jacob Cohen
16
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Are the 13 Keys to the White House Worthless?
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Jimmy Carter's 100th Birthday!
Carter did what he once had a 2% chance of doing: becoming the first centenarian president! A retrospective by Jacob Cohen (@Conflux).
Oct 1
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Jacob Cohen
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Jimmy Carter's 100th Birthday!
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September 2024
Cash prizes are here!
Our biggest announcement ever!
Sep 25
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Manifold Markets
19
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Cash prizes are here!
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