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Forecasting the President
Health scares and press conferences
Sep 3
•
Ben
19
August 2025
How To Win Friends and Influence Districts
From Ballot Lines to Battle Lines
Aug 27
•
Sahaj
22
1
Above the Fold of the Pontic Steppe
How the markets have reacted to Russia-Ukraine peace talks
Aug 22
•
Ben
13
Manifold-5
An underwhelming model release for OpenAI, a fiery redistricting battle for the House, and some WNBA disruptions
Aug 8
•
Ben
20
3
Kamchatka, Baba Vanga, Lobster Stew, and Basal Ganglia
Forecasting returns to its primal roots
Aug 1
•
Ben
17
July 2025
Is This the End of Human Exceptionalism?
From OpenAI's IMO breakthrough to Manifold's Squid Games
Jul 24
•
Sahaj
20
Manifold vs the World
The value of play money
Jul 21
•
Ben
32
1
Forecasting America
Some new American AI models and a new America Party
Jul 9
•
Ben
27
Forecasting Reconciliation
In Congress, in the Church, and in New York
Jul 1
•
Ben
22
June 2025
Manifold, the "NYC of Social Prediction Markets"
Zohran vs Cuomo, Khamenei vs Netanyahu, Haliburton vs Gilgeous-Alexander
Jun 24
•
Ben
11
1
Above the Persian Gulf
Prediction markets react to Operation Rising Lion and tumult at home in California
Jun 13
•
Ben
18
Forecasting the Trump-Musk Breakup
A market-shattering fight in the lead-up to Manifest
Jun 5
•
Ben
15
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