Archive - Above The Fold

Announcing MNX, the AI Exchange

We're very excited about this new project!

Feb 18 • Manifold Markets

Distributed Liability

The geopolitics of knowing the wrong people

Feb 13 • Sahaj

It was one of the most memorable plays in Super Bowl history, and how you feel about it depends on which side you were cheering for.

Feb 8 • Manifold Markets

Forecasting Moltbook

Wisdom of the Clawd

Feb 6 • Ben

Forecasting Claude Leaks

Will ClaudeCode get an upgrade today in the form of Sonnet 5?

Feb 4 • Ben

The Ayatollah and the Armada

With Maximum Pressure and Minimum Visibility

Feb 2 • Sahaj

January 2026

ICE Shutdown or Shut Down ICE

Forecasting the government shutdown with Above the Fold

Jan 29 • Ben

Manifold, 2026 - New Year, New Stuff!

Fresh from Manifold Markets: retail, loans, -le games, and a limited-time charity giveaway

Jan 27 • Ben

Forecasting Greenland

Above the Folds of the Northern Lights

Jan 20 • Ben

How to Abduct a President

What Saturday morning in Caracas reveals about American Power

Jan 18 • Sahaj

December 2025

Betting on the Millennium Problems

Twitter wagers and unsolved problems in mathematics

Dec 22, 2025 • Ben

Above the Island

Where novelty Trump condoms meet Grand jury materials

Dec 16, 2025 • Sahaj

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