Archive - Above The Fold

An Orderly Succession

On a plumber, a mayor, and the keys to Downing Street

May 27 • Sahaj

Changelog 5/22: Bonuses, Blocks & Colors

Plus some new ways to filter markets, new trading log UI, and personalize mana offers

May 23 • wasabipesto and Manifold Markets

Forecasting Mathematics

The proof is in the pudding

May 21 • Sahaj

Forecasting Hantavirus

Probably not the next global pandemic

May 18 • Ben

$11,000 in Prizes, 2x Trader Bonuses, Mana Rewards

Check out some of the ways you can win prizes, get swag, donate to charity, and ask your burning questions

May 15 • stef., Tod, and Manifold Markets

Forecasting Musk v. Altman

The trial of the year draws to a close

May 14 • Ben

Changelog 5/8: Shop Improvements, Silicon Rewards & More

Check out our recent site updates!

May 8 • wasabipesto and Manifold Markets

April 2026

ACX Contest x Manifold

The Astral Codex Ten annual forecasting competition was my introduction to the world of forecasting, several years back.

Apr 29 • Ben

Forecasting California

Golden State politics are back

Apr 20 • Ben

Announcing Manifest 2026!

Join us in Berkeley, CA on June 12-14

Apr 16 • Manifold Markets

Forecasting AI Economics

IPOs, valuation markets, and the prospects of an AI bubble

Apr 11 • Ben

March 2026

Beyond the Fold

Forecasting the unfalsifiable.

Mar 30 • Sahaj

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