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Maybe the Real Profits Were the Skills We Learned Along the Way
they’re not just for nerds and gamblers! prediction markets can help you build some pretty valuable soft skills and intellectual habits, too.
Sep 23
•
stef.
and
Manifold Markets
12
5
What Happens When 10,000 Agents Hear a Rumour?
a million-dollar prize, several million dollars of compute
Sep 15
•
Sahaj
3
5
Forecastra: Is this really the AGI era?
we’ve heard from Greg and Jensen. let’s see what the markets say about GPT-6 and whether AGI is imminent
Sep 9
•
Sahaj
9
1
Trump’s crypto pump & approval rating, streak refunds, widgets, charity, and cash prizes
See how our new market type, perps (perpetual markets), can be used to track events and reward good predictions.
Sep 1
•
Manifold Markets
and
Tod
5
2
August 2026
Forecasting a Third Term
On whether he means it.
Aug 19
•
Sahaj
21
1
Prize and Charity Drawings
Cash prizes, and good odds for a great cause.
Aug 15
•
Pat Scott
14
1
July 2026
Forecasting Ithaca
Brave Odysseus, historically-accurate Odysseus, diffusion model-generated Odysseus
Jul 27
•
Ben
21
1
Man vs Bin
The bin is the unity candidate.
Jul 23
•
Sahaj
20
1
1
The (mostly) Beautiful Game
The football has been excellent. The governance less so.
Jul 10
•
Sahaj
16
Forecasting Maine
With Platner Likely Out, What do the Markets Say?
Jul 8
•
Ben
14
1
Changelog 7/1: Manifold Jobs, Live Goal Markers, and a Big Pile of Small Improvements
We’ve been working on some really cool new things which are hopefully coming soon, but for now, here’s all of the minor improvements we’ve made in…
Jul 7
•
Tod
8
June 2026
Forecasting the World Cup
Knockouts are underway!
Jun 28
•
Ben
20
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