Above The Fold

Election Day Marketeering

Above the Fold covers an off-year election day

10 hrs ago • 

Ben

9

October 2025

OpenManifold

Forecasting AI's leading firm

Oct 29 • 

Ben

16

3

Calm Before the Storm

All the news that's fit to bet on

Oct 22 • 

Ben

18

1

Nobel Season

Above the Fold plays the waiting game

Oct 9 • 

Ben

15

2

September 2025

Shutdowns and War Plans

Manifold forecasts a polycrisis

Sep 30 • 

Ben

20

Experiments with Futarchy

Manifold becomes a battleground for a long-standing debate

Sep 26 • 

Ben

26

16

Forecasting the President

Health scares and press conferences

Sep 3 • 

Ben

21

August 2025

How To Win Friends and Influence Districts

From Ballot Lines to Battle Lines

Aug 27 • 

Sahaj

22

1

Above the Fold of the Pontic Steppe

How the markets have reacted to Russia-Ukraine peace talks

Aug 22 • 

Ben

13

Manifold-5

An underwhelming model release for OpenAI, a fiery redistricting battle for the House, and some WNBA disruptions

Aug 8 • 

Ben

20

3

Kamchatka, Baba Vanga, Lobster Stew, and Basal Ganglia

Forecasting returns to its primal roots

Aug 1 • 

Ben

17

July 2025

Is This the End of Human Exceptionalism?

From OpenAI's IMO breakthrough to Manifold's Squid Games

Jul 24 • 

Sahaj

20