Above The Fold

Peak TIME POTY Drama

The grayest of gray areas

Dec 11 • Ben

15

Carriers and Consequences

The world's largest oil reserves and America's shortest attention span

Dec 8 • Sahaj

24

Manifest x DC

And how you can manifest a 'Manifest x' Too

Dec 1 • Ben

18

1

November 2025

Forecasting Claude

Above the Fold is "Playing it Safe"

Nov 26 • Ben

27

Forecasting Gemini

Above the Fold is "Thinking with 3 Pro"

Nov 20 • Ben

24

1

Above the Thames

What Happens When The Centre Cannot Hold (and isn't trying)

Nov 7 • Sahaj

23

2

2

Election Day Marketeering

Above the Fold covers an off-year election day

Nov 4 • Ben

13

October 2025

OpenManifold

Forecasting AI's leading firm

Oct 29 • Ben

16

3

1

Calm Before the Storm

All the news that's fit to bet on

Oct 22 • Ben

18

1

1

Nobel Season

Above the Fold plays the waiting game

Oct 9 • Ben

15

2

September 2025

Shutdowns and War Plans

Manifold forecasts a polycrisis

Sep 30 • Ben

20

2

Experiments with Futarchy

Manifold becomes a battleground for a long-standing debate

Sep 26 • Ben

27

16

2