Archive - Above The Fold

ACX Contest x Manifold

The Astral Codex Ten annual forecasting competition was my introduction to the world of forecasting, several years back.

24 hrs ago • Ben

Forecasting California

Golden State politics are back

Apr 20 • Ben

Announcing Manifest 2026!

Join us in Berkeley, CA on June 12-14

Apr 16 • Manifold Markets

Forecasting AI Economics

IPOs, valuation markets, and the prospects of an AI bubble

Apr 11 • Ben

March 2026

Beyond the Fold

Forecasting the unfalsifiable.

Mar 30 • Sahaj

All Flanks, No Front

On Britain's safeguards, and their failure.

Mar 17 • Sahaj

Manifold Takes the Oscars

It's too late to watch the films in theaters but not too late to trade on them

Mar 12 • Ben

Forecasting Texas

The bellwether state for the midterms this fall

Mar 3 • Ben

Forecasting Operation Fury

On the markets, the metagame, and what 47% doesn't tell you.

Mar 1 • Sahaj

February 2026

Anthropic vs the Pentagon

Forecasting the standoff

Feb 26 • Ben

Above the Pitch

FIFA theatrics and the Premier league's annual tradition

Feb 25 • Sahaj

Announcing MNX, the AI Exchange

We're very excited about this new project!

Feb 18 • Manifold Markets

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