Archive - Above The Fold

Above the 49th Parallel

Carney carnage and rising tensions in Kashmir

11 hrs ago •

Above the Folded Secret Ballot

A conclave draws nigh, and tensions run high

Apr 21 •

Dire Wolves and Dire Finances

De-extinction skepticism and high volatility in global markets

Apr 11 •

AI 2027 and Liberation Day

Lines Going Up, Lines Going Down

Apr 4 •

March 2025

The Signal and the Denoiser

The Signal group chat scandal buries the lede on growing US-Iran tensions, and new diffusion models show breakthrough performance in Ghiblifying things.

Mar 28 •

Manifest 2025 Announcement

Buy tickets now! June 6th - 8th

Mar 22 •

and

Manifold Markets

Above the Fold, Cards of Gold

What markets think will happen to the "Gold Card" pathway to citizenship, the Department of Education, and the rule of law in the US

Mar 21 •

The Government Probably Isn't Shutting Down

Shutdown threats and called bluffs, Chinese AI developments, and a battle in higher ed.

Mar 14 •

I bet against a space launch as I cheered it on

It changed how I bet on events I care about, and I learned something about balancing profit and emotion

Mar 12 •

Recession Odds Skyrocket, Sky Rocket Odds Recede

Prediction markets weather a rough week on a number of fronts

Mar 7 •

February 2025

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