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Above the 49th Parallel
Carney carnage and rising tensions in Kashmir
11 hrs ago
•
Ben
12
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Above the 49th Parallel
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Above the Folded Secret Ballot
A conclave draws nigh, and tensions run high
Apr 21
•
Ben
14
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Above the Folded Secret Ballot
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Dire Wolves and Dire Finances
De-extinction skepticism and high volatility in global markets
Apr 11
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Ben
16
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Dire Wolves and Dire Finances
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AI 2027 and Liberation Day
Lines Going Up, Lines Going Down
Apr 4
•
Ben
21
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AI 2027 and Liberation Day
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3
March 2025
The Signal and the Denoiser
The Signal group chat scandal buries the lede on growing US-Iran tensions, and new diffusion models show breakthrough performance in Ghiblifying things.
Mar 28
•
Ben
19
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The Signal and the Denoiser
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Manifest 2025 Announcement
Buy tickets now! June 6th - 8th
Mar 22
•
David Chee
and
Manifold Markets
34
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Manifest 2025 Announcement
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Above the Fold, Cards of Gold
What markets think will happen to the "Gold Card" pathway to citizenship, the Department of Education, and the rule of law in the US
Mar 21
•
Ben
9
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Above the Fold, Cards of Gold
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2
The Government Probably Isn't Shutting Down
Shutdown threats and called bluffs, Chinese AI developments, and a battle in higher ed.
Mar 14
•
Ben
10
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The Government Probably Isn't Shutting Down
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1
I bet against a space launch as I cheered it on
It changed how I bet on events I care about, and I learned something about balancing profit and emotion
Mar 12
•
Rob Murrish
33
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I bet against a space launch as I cheered it on
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1
Recession Odds Skyrocket, Sky Rocket Odds Recede
Prediction markets weather a rough week on a number of fronts
Mar 7
•
Ben
20
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Recession Odds Skyrocket, Sky Rocket Odds Recede
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1
February 2025
Waclaud at the Oscars
Where the AI starts to beat us at our own games
Feb 27
•
Ben
26
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Waclaud at the Oscars
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AI and Political Realignments, Foreign and Domestic
Markets react to foreign policy shifts and new chatbot launches
Feb 20
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Ben
12
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AI and Political Realignments, Foreign and Domestic
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