Above The Fold

Election Night: What Traders Are Watching

The first race to watch, where Manifold and Cook disagree, and how not to get burned live-trading the count

Nov 3 • Jack

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Seven Leads... and a Defection

A Michigan Democrat endorsed the Republican two days out. Hours later, the final polls put Democrats ahead in every Senate battleground. Here’s what the…

Nov 2 • Jack

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The Other Dan Sullivan

The national mood, a tied race in Iowa, and the most unusual Senate race on the map.

Nov 2 • Jack

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October 2026

Nine Days Out, the Odds Are Still Moving

from a viral debate meltdown to heating oil prices, what’s shifting the markets in the final stretch

Oct 25 • Jack

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3

Pretend He’s on the Ballot

The war, the pump, and the map: what’s driving November

Oct 20 • Sahaj

11

The Gerrymander That Backfired

A 23-point swing among Hispanic voters is reshaping the Senate race, the House map, and even Abbott’s reelection.

Oct 16 • Jack

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September 2026

Maybe the Real Profits Were the Skills We Learned Along the Way

they’re not just for nerds and gamblers! prediction markets can help you build some pretty valuable soft skills and intellectual habits, too.

Sep 23 • stef. and Manifold Markets

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5

What Happens When 10,000 Agents Hear a Rumour?

a million-dollar prize, several million dollars of compute

Sep 15 • Sahaj

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5

Forecastra: Is this really the AGI era?

we’ve heard from Greg and Jensen. let’s see what the markets say about GPT-6 and whether AGI is imminent

Sep 9 • Sahaj

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1

Trump’s crypto pump & approval rating, streak refunds, widgets, charity, and cash prizes

See how our new market type, perps (perpetual markets), can be used to track events and reward good predictions.

Sep 1 • Manifold Markets and Tod

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August 2026

Forecasting a Third Term

On whether he means it.

Aug 19 • Sahaj

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Prize and Charity Drawings

Cash prizes, and good odds for a great cause.

Aug 15 • Pat Scott

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