Play-money efficacy in forecasting Many skeptics don’t think Manifold Markets can be taken seriously due to “monopoly money” not creating real incentives. However, our calibration analytics and recent performance forecasting the midterms suggest otherwise.
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Deep-dive analysis on how well calibrated Manifold markets is and more!
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Is this our juiciest newsletter yet?
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Report markets, comment bounties, twitch integration, Petrov day discussion
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Changes to the site such as the new homepage, new tournaments, and community events
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Big changes are coming.
Unwatch markets, new Help center, substack embeds and more updates!
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Loans, Substack supporting embeds*, daily betting streaks, new emails, new hires and more!
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Astral Codex Ten
Astral Codex Ten
Scott Alexander
Nonrival
Nonrival
Walter Frick