Manifold plays chess, draws penises, and scores at the 99.5th percentile in a prediction contest
1
Discussing how Manifold was founded and what we learnt in our first year!
1
Self-resolving mechanisms, Aella markets, SBF, and a ton of updates
1
Play-money efficacy in forecasting Many skeptics don’t think Manifold Markets can be taken seriously due to “monopoly money” not creating real…
6
Deep-dive analysis on how well calibrated Manifold markets is and more!
Is this our juiciest newsletter yet?
1
Report markets, comment bounties, twitch integration, Petrov day discussion
Changes to the site such as the new homepage, new tournaments, and community events
See all
Astral Codex Ten
Astral Codex Ten
Scott Alexander
Nonrival
Nonrival
Walter Frick

Above The Fold