Above the Island
Where novelty Trump condoms meet Grand jury materials
On Friday, Democrats on the House Oversight Committee released 19 photos from Jeffrey Epstein’s estate. The photos show Trump with six women wearing leis, Clinton with Ghislaine Maxwell, Steve Bannon with Epstein, Bill Gates, Woody Allen, and Alan Dershowitz. The committee has 95,000 more photos that they haven’t released yet. They received them on Thursday night.
This comes just a few days before the Trump administration’s December 19 deadline to release all Epstein files under the Epstein Files Transparency Act, which Trump signed on November 19 after Congress passed it 427-1 in the House and unanimously in the Senate.
Markets currently give around 37% odds that the files will actually get released by the deadline.
Transparency (terms and conditions apply)
The Epstein Files Transparency Act requires the Justice Department to release all files related to Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell within 30 days of passage. The language has been made clearer than day: make publicly available in searchable and downloadable format all documents, records, and communications.
The loopholes, it turns out, are also clear. The DOJ can withhold material related to ongoing investigations, national security, victim privacy, or anything depicting child sexual abuse. It can redact information that would constitute “clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy.”
Trump ordered the DOJ on November 15 to investigate Epstein’s connections to prominent Democratic figures, including Bill Clinton and Larry Summers. This investigation, conveniently launched after the bill passed, now provides legal cover to withhold documents under the “ongoing investigation” exception.
Attorney General Pam Bondi told reporters Wednesday the DOJ has already released 33,000 Epstein documents to Congress and will “continue to follow the law and to have maximum transparency.” She emphasised repeatedly that “the law as written allows us to protect victims.”
The Senate Judiciary Committee is less confident. Senators Adam Schiff and Dick Durbin requested an independent audit of the DOJ’s handling of the files, specifically asking whether there are “irregularities in the chain of custody.” They noted that Judge Paul Engelmayer has already chastised DOJ for “misleading portrayals of the evidence” and “paying lip service to Maxwell’s and Epstein’s victims.”
Five members of Congress from both parties sent Bondi a letter on December 3rd requesting a briefing on the department’s progress. The letter notes they are “particularly focused on understanding the contents of any new evidence, information or procedural hurdles that could interfere with the Department’s ability to meet this statutory deadline.”
A Series of Clarifications
Trump’s position on the Epstein files has moved through five phases in twelve months.
Campaign 2024: he’d “absolutely” release them. February 2025: Bondi announced the “client list is sitting on my desk.” July: a DOJ-FBI memo stated no client list exists. August: Trump called the whole thing “a hoax.” December: when asked about the photos, he said “no big deal.”
There is also the question of what exactly Trump’s plan is with the release. At this point, there is little doubt on his involvement with Epstein. The question we should be asking is why Trump was immediately so happy to release the files following weeks of hesitation.
On Tuesday afternoon, three days before the deadline, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles told Vanity Fair she’s read what she calls “the Epstein file.” Trump is in it, she confirmed. “And we know he’s in the file. And he’s not in the file doing anything awful.” Trump and Epstein were “young, single playboys together,” she said. Trump was on Epstein’s plane. He’s on the manifest.
Wiles also contradicted Trump’s repeated claims about Clinton. “There is no evidence” Clinton visited Epstein’s island, she said. “The president was wrong about that.”
Trump-style Contraception
House Democrats are releasing the 95,000 photos in batches. Representative Robert Garcia, ranking Democrat on Oversight, said Friday they’ve reviewed about 25,000 so far. Some photos, he noted, are “incredibly disturbing.”
The photos released Friday show Trump in various social settings with Epstein. One shows Trump with six women (faces redacted). Another shows Trump and Epstein talking to a woman at what appears to be a party. A third shows Trump on a plane next to a woman (face redacted). There’s also a photo of novelty condoms featuring Trump’s caricature with the text “I’m HUUUUGE!” in a bowl marked “Trump condom $4.50.”
Trump, to my utter dismay, has yet to capitalise on this untapped market segment, and has sadly NOT launched his own signature brand of condoms (yet?), to add to his exciting line-up of merchandise.
Unfortunately, it also seems like the Manifold Store will NOT be releasing its own Manifold-branded condoms anytime soon, much to the disappointment of anticipating traders.
Trump, asked about the photos Friday evening in the Oval Office, said it was “no big deal.”
Republicans on the committee accused Democrats of “cherry-picking photos and making targeted redactions to create a false narrative about President Trump.” They note that Democrats released 19 photos out of 95,000 and point out that nothing in the documents shows wrongdoing by Trump.
Trump and Epstein’s relationship goes back decades. In 2002, Trump called Epstein “a terrific guy” and noted he “likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side.”
The more serious allegations sit at different odds. Markets give low odds Trump faces criminal charges related to Epstein. Markets on whether Trump had sexual contact with minors through Epstein: 54%. Whether that will ever be proved in court? 17%
Trump has said he kicked Epstein out of Mar-a-Lago for inappropriate behaviour, though accounts vary. Trump’s name appears in Epstein’s black book. The Wall Street Journal published a birthday card from Trump reading “may every day be another wonderful secret.”
The timing is notable. Democrats are releasing photos that put pressure on the administration one week before the statutory deadline.
Markets on “Will Trump be accused by any trustworthy media outlet of being a Pedo with Epstein?” are at 9%.
The photos add political pressure but don’t necessarily add legal pressure. Being photographed with someone isn’t illegal (at least that’s the angle the administration is going with).
What the photos do is create a news cycle that makes it harder for the administration to quietly delay or heavily redact the files. Garcia told reporters: “The Department of Justice must release all the files, NOW.”
Markets give 8% odds that any top officials leave the Trump administration over the Epstein case, down from 57% in July.
Attorney General Pam Bondi told reporters Wednesday the DOJ has already released 33,000 Epstein documents to Congress and will “continue to follow the law and to have maximum transparency.” She emphasized repeatedly that “the law as written allows us to protect victims.”
On Tuesday, Wiles told Vanity Fair that Bondi “completely whiffed” on the Epstein files. In February, Bondi gave conservative influencers binders labeled “The Epstein Files: Phase 1” that contained no new information. “First she gave them binders full of nothingness,” Wiles said. “And then she said that the witness list, or the client list, was on her desk. There is no client list, and it sure as hell wasn’t on her desk.”
The List of Lists
We also see plenty of markets on who gets named, with quite a few already having been resolved in recent file releases.
Most of these people are already documented. Clinton flew on Epstein’s plane twenty-six times. Prince Andrew settled with Virginia Giuffre. Trump’s 2002 New York Magazine comments about Epstein liking younger women are public record.
Gates started meeting with Epstein in 2011, three years after the conviction. They met repeatedly through 2014. Gates says it was about philanthropy. Melinda Gates cited the meetings in their divorce. He’s at 71% to be named, 3% to face charges.
What’s more interesting is observing the pricing gap between being named and being charged.
Dershowitz asked Trump for a pre-emptive pardon for Maxwell in January 2021. Trump said no. Dershowitz has denied Giuffre’s allegations and is suing Netflix. Markets give him an 18% chance of indictment.
Leon Black paid Epstein $158 million between 2012 and 2017 for financial advice. After the conviction. Black left Apollo in 2021 when the payments became public. An investigation confirmed the money but found no criminal involvement.
Then there are markets that exist just for the mick of it.
Suicide Watch (and other oversights)
Manifold gives Epstein’s death 64% odds of actually being suicide.
While official investigations concluded suicide, only 21% of Americans believe the official conclusion, according to polls.
The DOJ-FBI memo released in July 2025 stated definitively: Epstein died by suicide, had no client list, didn’t blackmail prominent figures. The memo was signed off by an FBI now led by Kash Patel and Dan Bongino, both of whom spent years promoting conspiracy theories about Epstein before their appointments.
Patel, before becoming FBI director, appeared on Benny Johnson’s YouTube show in 2023 and said: “Put on your big boy pants and let us know who the pedophiles are.” He was addressing the then-leaders of the FBI about the Epstein files.
Bongino told his podcast audience in 2023: “Listen, that Jeffrey Epstein story is a big deal, please do not let that story go.”
Both men appeared on Maria Bartiromo’s show in May 2025 and said Epstein died by suicide. Markets on whether Bongino leaves his position spiked.
He was demoted to Co-Deputy Director in September.
The circumstances of Epstein’s death continue to fuel scepticism. He was on suicide watch, then removed from it. His cellmate was transferred the night before his death, no replacement assigned. The two guards allegedly didn’t check on him despite regulations requiring checks every thirty minutes. They falsified logs. The cameras outside his cell malfunctioned.
Dr. Michael Baden, the forensic pathologist hired by Epstein’s brother, observed three fractures in Epstein’s neck: both thyroid cartilages and the hyoid bone. He told 60 Minutes he’d never seen three fractures like that in over a thousand jail suicides. The medical examiner’s office maintains such fractures can occur in both suicides and homicides.
Ghislaine Maxwell, serving twenty years for sex trafficking, told DOJ investigators she doesn’t believe Epstein died by suicide. She clarified she doesn’t think it was a hit from wealthy figures: she thinks it was internal to the jail. “In prison, where I am, they will kill you or they will pay somebody to kill you for $25 worth of commissary.”
Markets give 18% odds Trump had Epstein killed.
Markets also give 1.5% odds Epstein will be found alive by 2028.
Thursday (maybe)
December 19 is three days away. Markets give 37% odds the files get released as mandated on time.
If the DOJ releases heavily redacted materials citing ongoing investigations and victim privacy, they technically comply while revealing little. If they release unredacted files, they create exposure for numerous prominent figures. If they miss the deadline, they face criminal implications that may never materialize.
Markets appear to be forecasting the first scenario. House Democrats seem to understand this, and they’re releasing photos from Epstein’s estate that don’t require DOJ cooperation. Garcia said Friday they’ll “continue to release photos in the days and weeks ahead.” The details seem to keep on coming, whether the DOJ complies or not.
Happy Forecasting!
- Above the Fold