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Election Night: What Traders Are Watching
The first race to watch, where Manifold and Cook disagree, and how not to get burned live-trading the count
Nov 3
•
Jack
10
2
Seven Leads... and a Defection
A Michigan Democrat endorsed the Republican two days out. Hours later, the final polls put Democrats ahead in every Senate battleground. Here’s what the…
Nov 2
•
Jack
6
1
Nine Days Out, the Odds Are Still Moving
from a viral debate meltdown to heating oil prices, what’s shifting the markets in the final stretch
Oct 25
•
Jack
10
3
Pretend He’s on the Ballot
The war, the pump, and the map: what’s driving November
Oct 20
•
Sahaj
11
The Gerrymander That Backfired
A 23-point swing among Hispanic voters is reshaping the Senate race, the House map, and even Abbott’s reelection.
Oct 16
•
Jack
8
1
2
What Happens When 10,000 Agents Hear a Rumour?
a million-dollar prize, several million dollars of compute
Sep 15
•
Sahaj
3
5
Forecastra: Is this really the AGI era?
we’ve heard from Greg and Jensen. let’s see what the markets say about GPT-6 and whether AGI is imminent
Sep 9
•
Sahaj
9
1
Forecasting a Third Term
On whether he means it.
Aug 19
•
Sahaj
21
1
Forecasting Ithaca
Brave Odysseus, historically-accurate Odysseus, diffusion model-generated Odysseus
Jul 27
•
Ben
21
1
Man vs Bin
The bin is the unity candidate.
Jul 23
•
Sahaj
20
1
1
The (mostly) Beautiful Game
The football has been excellent. The governance less so.
Jul 10
•
Sahaj
16
Forecasting Maine
With Platner Likely Out, What do the Markets Say?
Jul 8
•
Ben
14
1
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