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Forecasting Musk v. Altman
The trial of the year draws to a close
May 14
•
Ben
24
1
ACX Contest x Manifold
The Astral Codex Ten annual forecasting competition was my introduction to the world of forecasting, several years back.
Apr 29
•
Ben
28
Forecasting California
Golden State politics are back
Apr 20
•
Ben
21
1
Forecasting AI Economics
IPOs, valuation markets, and the prospects of an AI bubble
Apr 11
•
Ben
26
1
Beyond the Fold
Forecasting the unfalsifiable.
Mar 30
•
Sahaj
17
1
2
All Flanks, No Front
On Britain's safeguards, and their failure.
Mar 17
•
Sahaj
22
Manifold Takes the Oscars
It's too late to watch the films in theaters but not too late to trade on them
Mar 12
•
Ben
19
2
1
Forecasting Texas
The bellwether state for the midterms this fall
Mar 3
•
Ben
21
Forecasting Operation Fury
On the markets, the metagame, and what 47% doesn't tell you.
Mar 1
•
Sahaj
27
Anthropic vs the Pentagon
Forecasting the standoff
Feb 26
•
Ben
21
4
3
Above the Pitch
FIFA theatrics and the Premier league's annual tradition
Feb 25
•
Sahaj
9
1
Distributed Liability
The geopolitics of knowing the wrong people
Feb 13
•
Sahaj
14
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