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Forecasting Primary Day
Arguably the second most important election day of the year
Jun 2
•
Ben
17
An Orderly Succession
On a plumber, a mayor, and the keys to Downing Street
May 27
•
Sahaj
18
1
Forecasting Mathematics
The proof is in the pudding
May 21
•
Sahaj
26
2
Forecasting Hantavirus
Probably not the next global pandemic
May 18
•
Ben
30
Forecasting Musk v. Altman
The trial of the year draws to a close
May 14
•
Ben
26
ACX Contest x Manifold
The Astral Codex Ten annual forecasting competition was my introduction to the world of forecasting, several years back.
Apr 29
•
Ben
28
Forecasting California
Golden State politics are back
Apr 20
•
Ben
21
1
Forecasting AI Economics
IPOs, valuation markets, and the prospects of an AI bubble
Apr 11
•
Ben
26
1
Beyond the Fold
Forecasting the unfalsifiable.
Mar 30
•
Sahaj
17
1
2
All Flanks, No Front
On Britain's safeguards, and their failure.
Mar 17
•
Sahaj
22
Manifold Takes the Oscars
It's too late to watch the films in theaters but not too late to trade on them
Mar 12
•
Ben
19
2
1
Forecasting Texas
The bellwether state for the midterms this fall
Mar 3
•
Ben
21
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