Andy Harris won his Maryland seat by 22 points in 2024. After one viral debate, traders have knocked him out of the “Safe” column. Susan Collins’ reelection odds swung 7 points in a week. And Georgia’s governor’s race is suddenly leaning toward the Democrats.
All of it is tracked on Manifold’s midterms dashboard.
How the dashboard works
This midterm cycle, Manifold has markets for all 35 Senate and 36 governor races, plus 421 of the 435 House races (the other 14 have only one party on the ballot), and 124 statewide ballot measures.
For the House, Senate, and Governor races, the dashboard rates each race as Safe, Likely, Lean, or Toss Up for each party based on the current market odds.
Safe means traders give that party or candidate a 90% or greater chance of winning, Likely is 75–89%, Lean is 60–74%, and Toss Up covers races where no party is over 60%.
The House
At the time of writing, Manifold traders rate 211 seats Safe for Democrats and 141 Safe for Republicans. That leaves 83 races in the more competitive Toss Up, Lean, and Likely categories.
The 83 competitive House seats on Manifold’s midterms dashboard, as of October 25.
The odds and ratings update after every trade, so check out the map yourself to get the most up-to-date ratings and to make your own predictions. The ratings are also only a snapshot in time: ‘safe’ races can easily become competitive for a number of reasons, and some races will shift the other way, from competitive to safe.
One example of a shift is in Maryland’s 1st district, where Andy Harris, the incumbent Republican who won by 22 points in 2024, has dropped from 92% to 84% in the last two weeks, shifting the race from Safe R to Likely R. The shift is probably due to a poor debate performance that went viral, where he blamed rising diesel prices on Democrats’ environmental regulations and got very mad when the crowd laughed at his response.
In a post-debate press conference, he got mad at a student journalist who was asking questions. He told her to stop recording, citing Maryland’s wiretapping law, and threatened to take her camera for recording him without his consent, all this despite there being no expectation of privacy in a press conference!
Right now, there are 6 House races rated as Toss Up by Manifold traders. One of them is Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.
Maine’s 2nd District
Former Republican governor Paul LePage is running against Democrat Matt Dunlap. There is no incumbent after Jared Golden (D) decided not to seek reelection.
LePage is slightly favoured by traders at 56% to Dunlap’s 44%.
If elected, LePage would be one of the oldest first-term congressmen ever, at 78.
LePage served as Governor from 2011 to 2019. He ran for a third, non-consecutive term in 2022, against incumbent Janet Mills. He lost the election statewide by 13.2 points, but he won the 2nd congressional district by 2.4 points.
The political environment looks much worse for Republicans this year, though, given President Trump’s unpopularity. He has a net approval of -13 in this district according to a recent poll, despite having won this district by 10 points in 2016, 7 in 2020, and 9 in 2024.
LePage is campaigning on being close to Trump. He has broken with him slightly on the Iran War, tariffs, and even ICE, after it was reported that ICE was trying to deport his son’s father-in-law. But LePage believes his biggest selling point is the ability to get into the White House and meet with Trump, arguing that his opponent won’t be able to get meetings like this.
Matt Dunlap is the current Auditor of Maine, and previously served as Secretary of State from 2005 to 2011 and 2013 to 2021. Both positions are appointed by the state legislature in Maine.
Dunlap is a progressive who supports Medicare for All, and originally entered the race to primary challenge moderate Democrat Jared Golden, before Golden announced his retirement. Likely due to fears he was too left-wing for the district, Democrats in DC originally opposed Dunlap’s candidacy, endorsing a primary opponent, whom Dunlap beat in the final round of ranked-choice voting after placing second in the first round. Since the primary, they have gotten behind him, including spending $2M in just the last month to help him win.
One factor hurting Republicans in Maine is the price of heating oil, which approximately 50% of Maine households rely on. A gallon of heating oil in Maine averaged $6.04 at the start of this week, compared to $3.30 on October 20 last year. Heading into winter, this will be on a lot of people’s minds. Running strongly against the Iran War should help Dunlap and Troy Jackson, the Democratic nominee for Senate, on this issue. After lobbying from Maine’s senators, Trump released heating oil from the reserve this week to try to help.
Collins’ reelection odds on Manifold, as of October 25.
The Senate: Maine
The tough environment in Maine hurts Susan Collins. Her odds fell to 33% last week before recovering to 38%, and traders still have her as the underdog.
A poll for Fox News, released on October 22, has the race tied amongst likely voters at 49% each for Troy Jackson and Susan Collins. Amongst registered voters, Jackson leads 50% to 48%. The same poll found that 46% of respondents were concerned Jackson is too liberal, while 53% think Collins votes with Trump too often.
The polling averages show a small but consistent lead for Jackson.
Maine Senate polling averages, compiled by Wikipedia, updated October 16.
Governor: Georgia
Georgia governor’s race on Manifold over the past week.
The only current Toss Up governor’s race is Georgia. In the last week, the Democrats’ chances have risen from 48% to 59% according to Manifold traders, with potentially positive early vote data explaining this. The Republican nominee, Rick Jackson, has said he’s concerned about low turnout in rural counties, which are deeply Republican. Statewide in-person early vote numbers were up on day one of early voting, with 40% more votes cast compared to the 2022 midterms, and more than double the 2018 midterms.
However, Rick Jackson still leads in all the polling averages.
Georgia governor polling averages, compiled by Wikipedia, updated October 21.
Rick Jackson is a billionaire who made his wealth as a founder of a healthcare company. He has spent nearly $200m on his campaign, which is his first run for public office. He beat the Trump-endorsed Lt. Governor in the Republican primary runoff, after coming second in the first round. Jackson is running as a conservative outsider who has the business skills to deliver as Governor.
Keisha Lance Bottoms, the Democratic candidate, is a former mayor of Atlanta and former senior advisor to President Joe Biden. Biden made one of his only political endorsements since leaving office for Bottoms, filming a video saying she’s “something special” and was “invaluable to the administration.”
Bottoms would be the first Black governor and first woman governor of Georgia, the first Black woman governor in American history, and the first Democratic governor of Georgia since 2003. Bottoms has standard liberal policies and has been casting Jackson as too close to Trump. She has been holding rallies with Jon Ossoff and will be hoping his likely big win (he currently trades at 70% to win by 8% or more) can help her candidacy.
A Bottoms win could be a big factor in a potential Ossoff presidential run, as having a Democratic governor ensures a Democrat would be appointed to the seat if he leaves the Senate. Traders currently give Ossoff a 24% chance of not finishing his term if he’s reelected.
Every one of these races is live on Manifold’s midterms dashboard. With less than two weeks to go, check back as early votes come in, or make your own predictions.
- Jack
