Polls are open across the US! Here’s where the markets stand going in, the races worth watching tonight, and a reminder of how fast the odds can swing once the votes start coming in.
You can follow every race live on Manifold’s midterms dashboard.
The first race to watch: Kentucky’s 6th
One race to keep an eye on early in the night is Kentucky’s 6th District US House race. Only two states close polls at 6pm Eastern, Indiana and Kentucky, and it’s the most competitive race in either state based on the odds.
Traders currently give Zach Dembo (D) a 56% chance of victory over Ralph Alvarado (R) at 44%. This district voted for Trump by 15 points in 2024. They voted for their congressman Andy Barr by 26 points in 2024, however Barr is now running for the Senate seat, where he is an overwhelming favourite with a 95% chance of winning.
Kentucky’s 6th is open to voting for Democrats, though. Andy Beshear won here by 11 points in 2019 and 20 points in 2023 in the gubernatorial election, so the strong Republican lean of the district isn’t impossible to overcome for a Dem.
(Political Data Analyst Lakshya Jain)
There’s a conditional market on what happens if Dembo and the Democrats do win this district. Traders think Democrats will be in for an overwhelmingly good night if they can flip this Trump +15 district.
The big picture
Republican chances of holding the House have dropped to an all-time low of 2%. The Manifold dashboard shows Manifold traders have Democrats favoured in 242 seats.
For the Senate, there’s a new market, Democrat+Independent Senate Seats after 2026 Midterms?, which will resolve on Associated Press race calls. That means you don’t have to worry about how an independent will caucus, if Fetterman switches parties, or having your mana tied up waiting until 2027 for a senator to be actually sworn in.
Democrats currently have a 92% chance to win the majority of governorships after the midterms. The last time they held the majority of them was in 2010.
Democrats currently hold 24 governorships and Republicans hold 26. They both have 18 of their governorships up for election. The Manifold dashboard has Dems favoured to win 22 of the 36 governor elections today, whilst Republicans are favoured in 14 of them. If both parties won all the ones Manifold traders favour them in, that would mean 28 governorships for Democrats and 22 for Republicans.
Where Manifold and Cook disagree
The Cook Political Report released their final House ratings yesterday, and they weren’t very brave in some races. They left California’s 22nd as a Tossup. Manifold has it as Safe D, with Randy Villegas at 94% to beat incumbent Republican David Valadao.
It’s a majority Hispanic district, and Hispanic voters are disapproving of Trump and Republicans in greater numbers. Valadao also only received 40% of the vote in the nonpartisan primary, and you’d assume most of the eliminated Democrats’ votes would go to Villegas. I think it’s fair to say Valadao is pretty much toast.
If you want to trade on who’ll win the 18 Cook Political Report tossup districts, there’s a market here, where the current favoured outcome is Democrats to win 12 or more, at 45%.
Before you live-trade the results
Be careful as the results come in. Here’s an example from Michigan in 2024.
From the 2024 Senate election in Michigan: Elissa Slotkin (D) is the blue line, and Mike Rogers (R) is the red. Slotkin won in the end by 0.34 points.
I found this tweet from Zachary Donnini of VoteHub interesting when comparing it to how the odds played out in 2024. About 4 hours after polls closed, the odds shifted in favour of Mike Rogers to 75%. That’s when VoteHub says you’d expect the most Republican-favourable votes to come in, before the strongly Democratic areas trickle in on Wednesday morning. You can see it in how Rogers’ odds steadily decreased the day after the 2024 election.
It’s a good reminder to be careful when live trading the results, and to try to have an understanding of where the votes are coming from. Zachary Donnini did a whole bunch of tweets on how different states may report their results, and I think they’re worth checking out on his Twitter account as a guide.
Where to watch
Ryan McComb, a Manifold community member who works at VoteHub, will be on the CBS News/VoteHub election night livestream, so if you need a livestream to watch the results, make sure to check it out!
- Jack
