Manifold plays chess, draws penises, and scores at the 99.5th percentile in a prediction contest
Discussing how Manifold was founded and what we learnt in our first year!

December 2022

Self-resolving mechanisms, Aella markets, SBF, and a ton of updates

November 2022

Play-money efficacy in forecasting Many skeptics don’t think Manifold Markets can be taken seriously due to “monopoly money” not creating real…
Deep-dive analysis on how well calibrated Manifold markets is and more!

October 2022

Is this our juiciest newsletter yet?
Report markets, comment bounties, twitch integration, Petrov day discussion

September 2022

Changes to the site such as the new homepage, new tournaments, and community events
Big changes are coming.

August 2022

Unwatch markets, new Help center, substack embeds and more updates!
Loans, Substack supporting embeds*, daily betting streaks, new emails, new hires and more!
Hello! This week we talk about challenge bets, improvements to embeds, and share an interview we did with SneakySly. We also want to talk about 3…