5 Comments
User's avatar
grumboid's avatar

I'm confused. Why is there a bailout? Isn't this all just play money? Seems like it would be more fair to let the people that lost mana, actually lose the mana.

Expand full comment
LN's avatar

well, some of it is play money that was purchased with real money, so it does technically represent a real loss even if the play money can't be turned back into real money. but probably the real answer is that people enjoy roleplaying financial markets

Expand full comment
River's avatar
4dEdited

I think the mods were right to step in when they did for the reasons they did.

I also think that Peter's initial decision not to resolve the market was correct, not because of any notion of market creator autonomy, but because of a simple notion of integrity. A question of "who will hold X office next" logically cannot resolve until the next person is actually formally sworn in to X office. Before that he might die, or have a scandal of some kind, and an early resolution creates the risk that you can't keep your promise of mana to the people who bet on whatever does end up being the case.

I think Manifold's true mistake here was not vetting their market creators. Someone as slimy as Peter shouldn't have been allowed to judge a market in the first place - he clearly lacks the integrity to do so well, so Manifold shouldn't have trusted him with it. His dishonest choice damages Manifold's integrity as well. And the fact that traders were even asking for an early resolution shows how horribly poisonous Manifold's culture has become.

Expand full comment
Ninety-Three's avatar

Wait, Manifold bailed him out after the "bet on 99% chances" venture hit its 1% chance to blow up with Biden? Doesn't it ruin the entire point of a prediction market if you go around subsidizing bad bets?

Expand full comment
Brett's avatar

Most of it was just to bring my account out of the negative so it would be usable again to start over with, which technically doesn't add mana into circulation or cause any other concrete problems. Even so it seems unlikely the staff will do it again

Expand full comment