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Manifold-5
An underwhelming model release for OpenAI, a fiery redistricting battle for the House, and some WNBA disruptions
Aug 8
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Ben
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Manifold-5
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Kamchatka, Baba Vanga, Lobster Stew, and Basal Ganglia
Forecasting returns to its primal roots
Aug 1
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Ben
17
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Kamchatka, Baba Vanga, Lobster Stew, and Basal Ganglia
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Is This the End of Human Exceptionalism?
From OpenAI's IMO breakthrough to Manifold's Squid Games
Jul 24
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Sahaj
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Is This the End of Human Exceptionalism?
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Manifold vs the World
The value of play money
Jul 21
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Ben
32
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Manifold vs the World
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Forecasting America
Some new American AI models and a new America Party
Jul 9
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Ben
27
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Forecasting America
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Forecasting Reconciliation
In Congress, in the Church, and in New York
Jul 1
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Ben
22
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Forecasting Reconciliation
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Manifold, the "NYC of Social Prediction Markets"
Zohran vs Cuomo, Khamenei vs Netanyahu, Haliburton vs Gilgeous-Alexander
Jun 24
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Ben
11
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Manifold, the "NYC of Social Prediction Markets"
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Above the Persian Gulf
Prediction markets react to Operation Rising Lion and tumult at home in California
Jun 13
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Ben
18
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Above the Persian Gulf
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