Above The Fold

News and insights from the world's largest prediction market

P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.

Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about.

A weekly newsletter about prediction markets and how they are useful to make decisions.

A newsletter for https://manifund.org

Forecasting, geopolitics, and more.

James' Blog! (Views expressed here are not necessarily the views of Manifold Markets.)

Ex-professional gamer and Manifold manager reflects on being agentic, product design, game design and learnings