Play-money efficacy in forecasting Many skeptics don’t think Manifold Markets can be taken seriously due to “monopoly money” not creating real incentives. However, our calibration analytics and recent performance forecasting the midterms suggest otherwise.
Now that Manifold markets are being embedded in blog posts regularly, it would be nice to have a feature that lets the embedded post show the market status at the time the article was first posted, with a toggle to show the current status as of the time it is read. Not sure what the ideal UX/presentation and defaults should be on that, but both should easily be visible in some way, or else a lot of context will be lost when a blog post is making a point related to a market's current status that has now changed significantly. Also, showing the eventual resolution will add a lot of cool context to blog posts when you go back and read them!
I just want to state here that I'll boycott the FIFA World Cup in Qatar and encourage everyone else to do so as well.
In case that matters: I'm German.
Now that Manifold markets are being embedded in blog posts regularly, it would be nice to have a feature that lets the embedded post show the market status at the time the article was first posted, with a toggle to show the current status as of the time it is read. Not sure what the ideal UX/presentation and defaults should be on that, but both should easily be visible in some way, or else a lot of context will be lost when a blog post is making a point related to a market's current status that has now changed significantly. Also, showing the eventual resolution will add a lot of cool context to blog posts when you go back and read them!
The market also thinks that turning Manifold into a real money market wouldn't help much!
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-manifold-begins-allowing-realmon
> Check out this poll we di:
Typo
Interesting decision, capping the unique trader bonus. Is that mainly a loss-limiting action on the part of Manifold for really popular markets?