2024 Senate Race Rundown: Part 2
WV, MT, AZ, NV, PA, WI, OH, MI, oh my: all the elections where Democrats are defending. A politics update by Jacob Cohen (@Conflux).
Previously on “Above the Fold”: Part 1
Hello everyone! The five-newsletter streak of alternating between Conflux-written newsletters and SirSalty-written newsletters continues. You can tell the difference in various ways, but mine are like 3x the length and Substack always complains that I’ve gone over the length limit for emails. I dismiss it. Help me.
Perhaps one day I will write a mythical Short Newsletter. But for today, I’ve already committed to writing about the 23 Senate races where Democrats are defending. That’s, like, more than twenty.
Luckily, there are only 8 that really matter. And as for the vibe — for non-election nerds, my goal is to convey a sense of the many plates Democrats would have to keep spinning to retain the Senate in 2024.
And for the election nerds, my goal is to give fun facts, historical context, and helpful details for mentally handicapping each race. There’s something for everyone, ya know?
Quick recap from last time: as it currently stands, the Democratic caucus has 51 senators, and the Republican caucus has 49. The Democrats have three real opportunities to make gains: Texas, Florida, and the quirky Nebraska race. But each of those is a longshot.
Update: Two New Models
Since last week, 538 released a Senate forecast. In typical post-Silver 538 model fashion, it looks reasonable overall, but when you dig deeper you find a few questionable modeling choices: for instance, giving Dan Osborn in Nebraska a 1/3 chance to caucus with Democrats, 1/3 with Republicans, and 1/3 neither. That’s nowhere near what our market says! But still, the 538 numbers provide another baseline for comparison. As does the Split Ticket forecast, which is not new but is new to me. I don’t know much about them, but they have a nice website.
Here’s a compare-and-contrast between five probability sources (I threw in competing platform Polymarket) on the chances of the Democrat (or Osborn in Nebraska, who The Hill and Split Ticket counts as Democrats, and 538 counts as an independent with a 1/3 chance of caucusing for each party) in the three competitive races we looked at last time:
Manifold: Nebraska 22%, Texas 18%, Florida 9%
Polymarket: Nebraska 23%, Texas 20%, Florida 8%
The Hill: Nebraska 18%, Texas 24%, Florida 20%
538: Nebraska 7%, Texas 18%, Florida 18%
Split Ticket: Nebraska 31%, Texas 27%, Florida 23%
(Big gap between the markets and models on Florida! Also, I can’t decide which of these models is the most reasonable.)
Back to the Now
If Democrats don’t gain any seats, they can afford to lose just one of the races below — including the presidential race, which will determine whether Tim Walz or JD Vance is there to break ties. If they gain one seat, they can afford to lose two below.
You can decide how easy that will be. I’ve categorized the races into three sections by state: Red States, Purple States and Blue States.
The commentary will be in roughly descending order of length. Let’s do this!
SECTION ONE: THE RED STATES
538 recently did a podcast called “A 538 Election Road Trip,” and it provides a nice survey of selected downballot races — good companion listening to this newsletter. On it, analyst Geoffrey Skelley (one of the few left over from the Great Purge) said he’d have expected Ohio to be tougher for Democrats than Montana — because the candidate in Montana, Jon Tester, has more of a record of overperforming in the presidential race than Ohio’s Sherrod Brown. Yet polls show Brown with a narrow lead in Ohio, but Tester down by 5 in Montana.
Meanwhile, one red-state Democrat is long gone. And that’s where we begin our tour.
West Virginia: Glenn Elliott (D) vs. Jim Justice (R)
Democrat win chances per models: <1% (The Hill), <1% (538), 0% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Solid R (flip) (Cook), Safe R (flip) (Sabato), Solid R (flip) (Inside Elections)
Poll results (538): Justice+34 (more like Justice+10 vs. Manchin, but small sample size)
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+3 (Manchin vs. Morrisey)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+24 (Manchin vs. Raese)
Recent West Virginia presidential election results: Trump+39 (2020), Trump+42 (2016), Romney+27 (2012)
Manifolder commentary from a year ago:
Conflux: Do people actually think [Manchin would] likely lose by more than 10? He won by 3 in 2018. Sure, that was a wave year, but a 13-point swing is a lot
SemioticRivalry: I think Manchin is much less popular than in 2018 and this cycle is likely to be less Democratic, and he faced a weak candidate in '18, all of which works in my favor. But there's another more important factor, which is that it's a presidential year. Holding everything else constant, you would expect a Democratic incumbent in WV to do about 10% worse in a presidential year than in a midterm, due to the very consistent trend of dramatically less ticket splitting in presidential years. Even if it was a very good D year and he was equally popular, I still think he may lose by around 10.
AndrewG: I mean, he's 75 and didn't even get a majority of the vote in 2018. I'd say there's a 30% chance that he runs, and a 30% chance of winning if he does.
Conflux commentary:
Joe Manchin’s West Virginia Senate seat hasn’t been held by a Republican since 1959. (To be fair, from 1959 to 2010, it was held by only one Democrat: Robert Byrd, the longest-serving senator in US history.) Its transition from blue state to solid red state came suddenly in the last few decades, amid Democratic opposition to coal combined with increasing racial/educational polarization.
Manchin founded the Enersystems waste coal company in 1988, was elected West Virginia governor as a Democrat in 2006, and got elected to the Senate in 2010 after Byrd died. He was reelected in a landslide in 2012, winning tons of Republican votes. But as partisanship strengthened, he knew 2018 would be a close race — and was tired of the Senate. He literally said, “This place sucks.” But a few days before the filing deadline, he put his name in the race, and narrowly beat a weak opponent. In his last term, Manchin has held lots of leverage on key legislation, and proved that he’s to the right of the average Democrat, but far to the left of the average West Virginian senator. He’s surely the senator with the highest Wins Above Replacement.
But by now, the state is even redder, and Manchin (who’d had to spend over $75,000 on private security) is even more tired of Congress. He’s become an Independent, and flirted with running a third-party presidential campaign. His Senate reelection would have been an uphill battle — but his retirement assures defeat.
Who will replace him? Jim Justice, until recently the richest man in West Virginia. (He has paid millions in coal mine safety debt, a worrying phrase. Ugh, at least he has a dog?) “Big Jim” was a Republican, then he became a Democrat to run for governor in 2016, then he switched back to Republican.1 Now he’ll represent WV in the Senate.
Montana: Sen. Jon Tester (D) vs. Tim Sheehy (R)
Democrat win chances per models: 21% (The Hill), 10% (538), 23% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Lean R (flip) (Cook), Lean R (flip) (Sabato), Tilt R (flip) (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Sheehy+5
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+3 (Tester vs. Rosendale)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+4 (Tester vs. Rehberg vs. Cox)
Recent Montana presidential election results: Trump+16 (2020), Trump+20 (2016), Romney+14 (2012)
Manifolder commentary:
SemioticRivalry: every candidate says they're doing fine. what's telling is when they fail to publicly release polls that show that to be the case.
Jesse: Reminds me of Heitkamp in North Dakota
Chris Lloyd: 1/3 seems like a little too optimistic for Tester.
Conflux commentary:
In contrast to Joe Manchin, Jon Tester chose to fight his uphill battle. First elected in 2006 by 1% against a scandal-tarnished opponent, Tester’s 4% reelection margin in 2012 was less than the 6% achieved by a Libertarian candidate. With a 3% margin in 2018, Tester’s victories have been impressive, and have come in spite of other Republicans winning Montana — but they’ve all been narrow.
His 2024 opponent, Tim Sheehy, is “a former Navy SEAL, aerial firefighter and businessman.” He’s lied a bit about his military history, and has been accused of plagiarism and racial stereotypes against Native Americans. Nothing too out of the ordinary.
Tester seemed to lead early polls, but Sheehy is now leading by 5 points in the polling average. (Perhaps this is due to Republicans “coming home” to vote for their party’s nominee once pressured to do so.) Still, polling error is typically bigger in Senate races than in presidential ones, so Tester has a chance — although Manifold thinks he probably won’t even outperform Harris by double digits, essentially necessary to win.
Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Bernie Moreno (R)
Democrat win chances per models: 47% (The Hill), 55% (538), 50% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Tossup (Sabato), Tossup (Cook), Tossup (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Brown+1.6
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+7 (Brown vs. Renacci)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+6 (Brown vs. Mandel)
Recent Ohio presidential election results: Trump+8 (2020), Trump+8 (2016), Obama+3 (2012)
Manifolder commentary:
Panfilo: The introduction of Vance to the main ticket probabaly increases the odds of this for Rs.
Plasma Ballin’: I was going to sell my Brown shares when I saw that this market had gotten up to 47%. But then I looked at the polling average.
Charlie Bauer: Brown outperformed Obama by 3.0% in 2012. There’s no way he’s viewed as more moderate than he was then, given he has followed the party line on every issue. Trump polled 10.7% ahead of Biden (on RCP, last poll was 7/1). So I predict Brown loses by about 8%.
Plasma Ballin’: GOP internals somehow have Brown up by 6. Extremely unexpected, but that makes me think that he has more of an edge than it seems.
Conflux commentary:
Ohio was once a bellwether state, voting for the winner in the presidential election every year between 1964 and 2016. But because of demographic coalition shifts, it’s become a red state, and Harris has next to no chance to win it presidentially.
However, Sherrod Brown is a popular incumbent who’s been in office for three terms, and his opponent Bernie Moreno has never held political office, being a former car ownership dealer. Back-of-the-envelope math suggests that the Republican, Moreno, would still have the advantage, but Sen. Brown has taken a narrow lead in polls — as I mentioned earlier, a bit mystifying compared to Montana. This will be an absolute nail-biter.
INTERLUDE: MANIFOLD’S POLITICAL PARTY INTEREST FORM
As I mentioned last week, Manifold is hosting a free Election Night party at Lighthaven in Berkeley on Tue, Nov 5 from 2pm-1am! I’m co-planning it, and I’m hoping it will be a really awesome event.
To help it be awesome, I’ve created this interest form which you should fill out! You can have a say on what activities will occur, as well as the name of the event.
Alright, back to politics.
SECTION TWO: THE PURPLE STATES (WHERE DEMOCRATS ARE SOMEHOW FAVORED TO WIN EACH OF THEM?)
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona. What do those states have in common?
Well, they’re five of the notorious Seven Swing States, which will decide the presidential race. Neither Harris nor Trump has a real lead in any — the closest thing is a Trump+2 average in Arizona.
And all five of those states (not Georgia or North Carolina) have Democratic Senate seats up for grabs. Almost no one splits their ticket anymore, so I assumed they’d be tossups for the Senate too. If WV, Montana, Ohio, and these five states all went red, the Republicans would have 57 seats.
This logic is why I kept buying shares of the last few options in this market. (Especially since there could be correlated polling error!)
But Manifold disagrees. And so do the polls. Somehow, despite being in presidential swing states, the Democrat has a clear lead — though varying in magnitude — in these five states. Don’t get me wrong, the Republican could still win all five (and especially in the three Midwestern states). But it’s seeming less likely.
It seems to come down to candidate quality? Harris (and Biden before her) is still less popular than the Democrats in these states. On the other hand, the Republicans tend to have less political experience.
Pennsylvania: Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) vs. David McCormick (R)
Democrat win chances per models: 73% (The Hill), 75% (538), 71% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Lean D (Cook), Lean D (Sabato), Tilt D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Casey+4
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+13 (Casey vs. Barletta)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+9 (Casey vs. Smith)
Recent Pennsylvania presidential election results: Biden+1.2 (2020), Trump+0.7 (2016), Obama+5 (2012)
Manifolder commentary:
Peter Angel: How much do we expect Casey to outperform Harris? Because RCP has him at +1.9 and 538 is +4 not sure that justifies 75% (25% ahead of the presidential race)
Conflux commentary:
Bob Casey was Pennsylvania Treasurer (1977-1981). Bob Casey was the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania (1978). Bob Casey was the governor of Pennsylvania (1987-1995).
Oh, to be clear, those were all three different Bob Caseys. The last one was the only really famous one, and he had to brand himself as “the real Bob Casey”!
Anyway, this Senate race concerns a fourth Bob Casey — the son of “the real Bob Casey” — who in 2006 beat the incumbent Rick Santorum to win election as senator, and was reelected with solid margins. David McCormick, the Republican nominee, has never held elected office, though he was an undersecretary in the George W. Bush cabinet. Recently he was CEO of a big hedge fund. He ran for Senate in 2022 as well, but lost in the primary to Dr. Oz (who he characterized as a RINO). McCormick was there in the front row when Trump was shot.
Both candidates are doing their best to win over the few split-ticket voters they can find, but Casey’s incumbency and McCormick’s conservatism and lack of experience seem to be moving more to Casey than McCormick. Still, both candidates could easily win.
Michigan: Elissa Slotkin (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R)
Democrat win chances per models: 68% (The Hill), 78% (538), 74% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Tossup (Cook), Lean D (Sabato), Tilt D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Slotkin+4
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+7 (Stabenow vs. James)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+21 (Stabenow vs. Hoekstra)
Recent Michigan presidential election results: Biden+2.8 (2020), Trump+0.2 (2016), Obama+10 (2012)
Manifolder commentary:
Plasma Ballin’: Republican internals show Slotkin up by 8.
Conflux commentary:
Here, a battle between two politicians who once represented the same congressional district: Democrat Elissa Slotkin has represented Michigan’s 7th since 2019, when it was named the 8th. Republican Mike Rogers was in office from 2001 to 2015. Speaking of residency, both candidates have controversies: Rogers “moved to Florida because of some business opportunities,” making him a potential carpetbagger in Michigan, while Slotkin was accused of staying in a lobbyist’s house.
As Sen. Debbie Stabenow is retiring, this race has no incumbent — which would push it toward being a true tossup. And unlike other races in this set, the Republican does have political experience. However, Michigan is simply a bluer state than Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, and the polls show Slotkin with a modest lead.
Wisconsin: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) vs. Eric Hovde (R)
Democrat win chances per models: 68% (The Hill), 73% (538), 67% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Lean D (Cook), Lean D (Sabato), Tilt D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Baldwin+2.9
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+11 (Baldwin vs. Vukmir)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+6 (Baldwin vs. Thompson)
Recent Wisconsin presidential election results: Biden+0.6 (2020), Trump+0.8 (2016), Obama+7 (2012)
Manifolder commentary:
[I couldn’t find any]
Conflux commentary:
In 1998, Tammy Baldwin became the first openly lesbian woman to be elected to Congress! In 2012, she became the first woman at all to be a senator from Wisconsin. And she’s won her elections by solid margins in the purple state. Eric Hovde (pronounced like “hover” but with the last syllable replaced with “dee”), by contrast, is another businessman with no political experience. (He also has questionable residency — “In press releases, the Democratic Party of Wisconsin has taken to calling him Eric Hovde (R-Laguna Beach).”) Here, the candidate quality explanation for the Democratic advantage holds water.
Baldwin’s lead in polls was formerly around 6 points, but it’s down to 3. Again, this could be would-be split-ticket voters feeling pressure to vote for a Republican. It wouldn’t take a big polling error for Hovde to become the senator.
Nevada: Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) vs. Sam Brown (R)
Democrat win chances per models: 81% (The Hill), 90% (538), 85% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Lean D (Cook), Lean D (Sabato), Tilt D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Rosen+8
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+5 (Rosen vs. Heller)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: R+1.2 (Heller vs. Berkley)
Recent Nevada presidential election results: Biden+2.4 (2020), Clinton+2.4 (2016), Obama+7 (2012)
Manifolder commentary:
Plasma Ballin’: D+7 according to GOP internal polls
Conflux commentary:
On the 538 podcast I mentioned earlier, skepticism was expressed that Jacky Rosen would really win by 8 points in a state as much of a tossup as Nevada — which voted for the winner in every presidential election between 1912 and 2012, was trending blue in 2016, but seems to be going a little redder in 2024. But she leads by 8.
Sam Brown, who served in the military, “sustained burns to thirty percent of his body due to an improvised explosive device injury in 2008.” He supports abortion, although according to The Guardian, “Rosen has categorized [him] as extreme,” while Jacky Rosen — who defeated an incumbent Republican in 2018 — is “a pragmatic, old-school bipartisan focused on local issues.” Ultimately, Rosen is leading in the polls and therefore the forecasts.
Arizona: Ruben Gallego (D) vs. Kari Lake (R)
Democrat win chances per models: 84% (The Hill), 88% (538), 82% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Lean D (flip) (Cook), Lean D (flip) (Sabato), Tilt D (flip) (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Gallego+7
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+2.4 (Sinema vs. McSally)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: R+3 (Flake vs. Carmona)
Recent Arizona presidential election results: Biden+0.3 (2020), Trump+4 (2016), Romney+9 (2012)
Manifolder commentary (from “Will Kyrsten Sinema win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona?”, from almost 2 years ago)
Matt P: Sinema is way more politically savvy than people give her credit for. Just like Joe Manchin, she will be reviled by the left wing of her party, but will sit in that Senate seat until she dies or retires.
Conflux: Right. Presumably if she runs against a Democrat and a Republican, the Republican just wins. So her best chance would be to get cross-endorsed by the Democrats or something, but everyone hates her now. I guess I should be betting this even lower.
Zachary Freitas-Groff: I brought this up from 16% to 33% yesterday. Incumbents have a very strong advantage with re-election rates well north of 80%. This race is weird, yes, but I'd have thought she's more likely to win than not. And when I think of senators going independent, I think of, e.g., Joe Lieberman who won, and to a lesser extent Angus King and Lisa Murkowski. It seems like most likely it's a three-way race where the money seems close to even on any of the three parties, with a smaller chance one party chooses not to nominate someone, in which case she likely wins. Am I missing something?
BRTD: that's assuming that a non-negligible number of Democratic voters vote for the candidate with a 5% favorability rating amongst Democrats
BRTD: Time to resolve [whether Sinema runs] as NO
Conflux commentary:
This race is an inverted version of West Virginia. If the current Democrat-caucusing Independent, Kyrsten Sinema, was still in the race, it would be very different — but it’d probably hurt, not help, the Democrats’ chances.
Since Sinema has declared she’s out of the race, there’s been less interest from Manifold. Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego is popular, and his opponent Kari Lake, an ardent election denialist who lost the 2022 gubernatorial election, is less so. In red-leaning Arizona, Gallego is running ahead of Harris by 9 percentage points in polls. It seems likely the gap will tighten, but along with the preceding races, Democrats seem to be doing better than expected.
Due to the unfortunate map, though, still probably not enough to keep the chamber.
One Last Market
My tradition is to highlight a "fun" market. Today, I wanted to use this slot to promote my own market, which is about the ultimate name of the MANIFOLD ELECTION PARTY WHICH YOU SHOULD COME TO (if you live in the bay area and are into that sort of thing) AND ALSO FILL OUT THIS FORM ABOUT kthxbye
As usual, I’ve given the market a M1,000 subsidy to encourage accuracy.
I’m Jacob Cohen (aka Conflux), a student at Stanford University. I blog at tinyurl.com/confluxblog, host puzzles at puzzlesforprogress.net, and don’t release any new episodes of the Market Manipulation Podcast on your favorite podcast platform. Check out Manifold Politics at manifold.markets/elections, or via its Politics or 2024 Election categories. And if you enjoyed this newsletter, don’t forget to forward, like, share, comment, and/or subscribe to Above the Fold on Substack!
Wait, you’re telling me I only covered 8 states? And there are 15 remaining? Oh fine, I’ll do the rest. But I’ll make the commentary quick!
ADDENDUM: SECTION THREE: THE BLUE STATES: SPEEDRUN TIME
Maryland: Angela Alsobrooks (D) vs. Larry Hogan (R)
Democrat win chances per models: >99% (The Hill), >99% (538), 96% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Likely D (Cook), Likely D (Sabato), Likely D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Alsobrooks+10
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+35 (Cardin vs. Campbell)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+30 (Cardin vs. Bongino)
Recent Maryland presidential election results: Biden+33 (2020), Clinton+26 (2016), Obama+26 (2012)
Manifolder commentary from 6 months ago:
SemioticRivalry: I tried to figure out the odds of an average congressional candidate outperforming Trump by >30 points while sharing his ballot and here's what I got:
Obviously Hogan is no generic R but my priors are pretty strong on this one.
Johnny Ten-Numbers: For my part I just saw that the Republicans were trading at 25% on Polymarket [Editor’s note: now only 10%] and Good Judgment Open is at 38%. But I definitely agree the Democrats are the heavy favourites.
SemioticRivalry: Jesus Christ himself could not win this seat running as a Republican
Conflux commentary:
Earlier in this post, I discussed a few examples of Democrats who are atypically popular in red states: Joe Manchin, Jon Tester, Sherrod Brown. This post concerns the reverse: Larry Hogan, the Republican nominee, who left office as governor of Maryland with a 77% approval rating. He initially won the governorship in 2014 in a close upset, then was reelected in 2018 by a R+12 margin. He’s governed as a moderate, and is not a Trump supporter.
There was some speculation that Hogan would run for president in 2024, but he endorsed Nikki Haley and went for Senate instead. Unfortunately for his chances, Senate races tend to be more nationalized, so his opponent, Angela Alsobrooks (who is the Executive of Prince George’s County) will likely win. But I think The Hill’s model (and SemioticRivalry, although his trading record is superior to mine…) to be a little overconfident. I’d give Hogan around a 5% chance to pull off the upset.
New Mexico: Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) vs. Nella Domenici (R)
Democrat win chances (Manifold, 16 traders): 95% (I bet up from 90%)
Democrat win chances per models: 95% (The Hill), 98% (538), 95% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Heinrich+10
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+24 (Heinrich vs. Rich)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+6 (Heinrich vs. Wilson)
Recent New Mexico presidential election results: Biden+11 (2020), Clinton+8 (2016), Obama+10 (2012)
Commentary:
At 90%, I felt that this Manifold probability (in a state which went red in 2004 but has since trended blue) was just low due to laziness; a lot of these are, frankly. So I bet it up to match the models! I did leave some free alpha on the table in these other markets, though, as a present for reading this far.
New Jersey: Andy Kim (D) vs. Curtis Bashaw (R)
Democrat win chances per models: 92% (The Hill), 97% (538), 97% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Not enough polls
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+11 (Menendez vs. Hugin)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+20 (Menendez vs. Kyrillos)
Recent New Jersey presidential election results: Biden+16 (2020), Clinton+14 (2016), Obama+18 (2012)
Commentary:
Bob Menendez wanted to ruin it for the Democrats. (Un)fortunately, he has now been found guilty of corruption, and will be sentenced in January. In the primary, Rep. Andy Kim ran against First Lady of New Jersey Tammy Murphy in a primary which involved a lawsuit to make the balloting more fair. Now he’ll be the first Asian to represent NJ in the Senate.
Virginia: Sen. Tim Kaine (D) vs. Hung Cao (R)
Democrat win chances per models: 94% (The Hill), 98% (538), 96% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Kaine+13
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+16 (Kaine vs. Stewart)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+6 (Kaine vs. Allen)
Recent Virginia presidential election results: Biden+10 (2020), Clinton+5 (2016), Obama+4 (2012)
Commentary:
Although a Republican did win the gubernatorial election in Virginia in 2021, the reelection of the popular Tim Kaine (Hillary Clinton’s running mate) against political newcomer Hung Cao2 should not prove too difficult.
Washington: Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) vs. Raul Garcia (R)
Democrat win chances per models: 99% (The Hill), 98% (538), 99% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Not enough polls
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+17 (Cantwell vs. Hutchison)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+21 (Cantwell vs. Baumgartner)
Recent Washington presidential election results: Biden+19 (2020), Clinton+16 (2016), Obama+15 (2012)
Commentary:
The polls were weirdly close in 2022, leading 538 to give an 8% chance of Republican victory, but this year there should be no drama.
Maine: Angus King (independent, caucuses with Democrats) vs. David Costello (D) vs. Demitroula Kouzounas (R)
King win chances per models: >99% (The Hill), 95% (538), 99% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Solid I (Cook), Safe I (Sabato), Solid I (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Not enough polls
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: I+19 (King vs. Brakey)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: I+22 (King vs. Summers)
Recent Maine presidential election results: Biden+9 (2020), Clinton+3 (2016), Obama+15 (2012)
Commentary:
🐮👑
Vermont: Sen. Bernie Sanders (independent, caucuses with Democrats) vs. Gerald Malloy (R)
Sanders win chances per models: >99% (The Hill), >99% (538), 100% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Solid I (Cook), Safe I (Sabato), Solid I (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Not enough polls
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: I+40 (Sanders vs. Zupan)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: I+46 (Sanders vs. MacGovern)
Recent Vermont presidential election results: Biden+35 (2020), Clinton+26 (2016), Obama+36 (2012)
Commentary:
Oh, fine, I can talk about independents for a second. Many people don’t realize that the Democrats’ 51-49 “majority” includes a record-high four of them: Bernie Sanders, Angus King, Kyrsten Sinema, and Joe Manchin. The last two were elected as Democrats but switched to Independent before retiring to send some kind of message, but Sanders and King were legitimately elected as independents: King sort of from the middle (getting both a Democratic and Republican challenger) and Sanders from the left (typically endorsed by the state Democratic forces). They almost always vote with Democrats, and they’re Democrats in all but name, but American elections are often vessels of tradition.
Connecticut: Sen. Chris Murphy (D) vs. Matthew Corey (R)
Democrat win chances per models: >99% (The Hill), 99% (538), 100% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Not enough polls
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+20 (Murphy vs. Corey)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+12 (Murphy vs. McMahon)
Recent Connecticut presidential election results: Biden+20 (2020), Clinton+14 (2016), Obama+17 (2012)
Commentary:
This seat had an interesting race in 2006, when incumbent Joe Lieberman lost the Democratic primary and won on an independent “Connecticut for Lieberman” ticket. In 2012, he retired and was replaced by Chris Murphy, then the youngest US senator but now about to win his third term.
Minnesota: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) vs. Royce White (R)
Democrat win chances per models: 98% (The Hill), 98% (538), 97% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Klobuchar+11
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+24 (Klobuchar vs. Newberger)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+35 (Klobuchar vs. Bills)
Recent Minnesota presidential election results: Biden+7 (2020), Clinton+1.5 (2016), Obama+8 (2012)
Commentary:
In another universe, Minnesota is a competitive state, but people forget that Amy Klobuchar is a really strong candidate in her home state.
Rhode Island: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) vs. Patricia Morgan (R)
Democrat win chances per models: >99% (The Hill), 99% (538), 100% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Not enough polls
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+23 (Whitehouse vs. Flanders)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+30 (Whitehouse vs. Hinckley)
Recent Rhode Island presidential election results: Biden+21 (2020), Clinton+16 (2016), Obama+27 (2012)
Commentary:
Does it count as a fun fact that the senator’s last name is Whitehouse?
Delaware: Lisa Blunt Rochester (D) vs. Eric Hansen (R)
Democrat win chances per models: >99% (The Hill), 98% (538), 100% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Not enough polls
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+22 (Carper vs. Arlett)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+37 (Carper vs. Wade)
Recent Delaware presidential election results: Biden+19 (2020), Clinton+11 (2016), Obama+19 (2012)
Commentary:
In a state like Delaware, which has two Senate seats but only one House seat, which body is it more impressive to be elected to? It’s quite the philosophical quandary. Anyway, I needed something to fill the space — god it’s like 2am as I write this — because Delaware-at-large Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester will now become Delaware Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester.
Massachusetts: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) vs. John Deaton (R)
Democrat win chances per models: >99% (The Hill), >99% (538), 100% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Warren+23
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+24 (Warren vs. Diehl)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+8 (Warren vs. Brown)
Recent Massachusetts presidential election results: Biden+33 (2020), Clinton+27 (2016), Obama+23 (2012)
Commentary:
Given Elizabeth Warren’s national prominence, it’s sort of interesting that she’s historically underperformed national Democrats in Massachusetts. It doesn’t impact the result since MA is such a blue state, but it’ll be interesting to see if that trend continues. Will Warren or Harris do better?
New York: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) vs. Mike Sapraicone (R)
Democrat win chances per models: >99% (The Hill), >99% (538), 100% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Gillibrand+23
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+34 (Gillibrand vs. Farley)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+46 (Gillibrand vs. Long)
Recent New York presidential election results: Biden+23 (2020), Clinton+22 (2016), Obama+28 (2012)
Commentary:
In 2022, New York State was home to a mini red wave — it’s when George Santos got elected, along with other conservative representatives. Trump’s campaign event in Madison Square Garden sparked some discussion over whether New York is a swing state. It’s not.
California: Adam Schiff (D) vs. Steve Garvey (R)
Democrat win chances per models: >99% (The Hill), >99% (538), 100% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Schiff+23
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: Feinstein+8 (Feinstein vs. de León, both candidates were Democrats due to California’s jungle primary)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+25 (Feinstein vs. Emken)
Recent California presidential election results: Biden+29 (2020), Clinton+30 (2016), Obama+23 (2012)
Commentary:
There was some drama about the primary (see my old newsletter), but the general election seems to be boring. Steve Garvey, a former baseball player without clear policies, is the sort of Republican who might overperform in California, but he still won’t beat Adam Schiff.
Hawaii: Sen. Mazie Hirono (D) vs. Bob McDermott (R)
Democrat win chances per models: >99% (The Hill), >99% (538), 100% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): No Senate polls
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+42 (Hirono vs. Curtis)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+25 (Hirono vs. Lingle)
Recent Hawaii presidential election results: Biden+29 (2020), Clinton+32 (2016), Obama+43 (2012)
Commentary:
Ah, just like last time, we conclude with a race so boring that no one has even bothered to poll it! And with that, you made it through every race.
Thanks to Audrey Wong (aka the winner of the trivia game on Episode 4 of the Market Manipulation Podcast) for helping with data entry in this post! She has a genuine passion for data entry, so it was a win-win. You should hire her for all your data entry needs.
On the theme of party switching, Don Blankenship switched from Republican (2018) to Constitution Party (2020, when he ran for president) to Democrat (2024), where he ran in the Senate primary. Had Blankenship beat Wheeling mayor Glenn Elliott, Manchin would've probably had a good shot to win as an Independent, since the major-party nominees might split Republican votes. He said that would be a "long, long, long shot scenario," but left the door open to running.
I'm personally hung up on the fact that one of my friends' surnames is Hung and another is Cao.