TikTok ban looms & Georgia suspends all poultry activities
Weekly Manifold updates. TikTok, Israel-Hamas Ceasefire, LA Fires, Bird flu outbreak
Welcome back to Manifold’s “weekly” news summaries for 2025!
Tik Tok goes the clock
Two days from now, millions of toilet excursions will worsen as Americans will have to settle for Instagram Reels instead of TikToks.
It looks increasingly likely that Bytedance will not receive an extension to divest. This morning, on Jan 17th, the Supreme Court decided to uphold the law banning TikTok. The market still holds out some hope of an extension at 21% even after this update.
The pending law to ban TikTok from app stores does not technically ban existing users, however, current rumours suggest that TikTok intends to shut down for all users if they do not receive an extension. This is likely due to the technical and legal challenges that would occur with not being able to push any updates to the app and the ban preventing U.S. internet hosting services from distributing TikTok content.
The good news for avid TikTok creators and consumers? There is still a 70% chance that TikTok will be usable by the public at the start of Q2.
This is due to the belief that even if TikTok has to shut down for a short period of time, Trump will step in once in power and either provide them with an extension or some other political agreement.
Others have shown interest in buying TikTok such as MrBeast, and there are rumours (denounced by TikTok) that the Chinese were discussing selling to Elon. However, TikTok has repeatedly stated that it will not be selling its algorithm to an American company.
Will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict?
After 15 months of fighting, Israel and Hamas have agreed to terms for a ceasefire and hostage release. It is due to take effect on January 19th, Biden’s last day in office, and likely not a coincidence as he has been speaking with Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu about negotiations.
The final stage of approval just passed with Israel’s 33-member group of ministers approving the proposed agreement. Over the next 6 weeks, small groups of hostages are expected to be exchanged as the ceasefire holds in place with Israeli forces withdrawing from areas of Gaza. This will be followed by negotiating for a second and third phase, which could end the war if things go smoothly.
The market is bullish that at least 10 days of the 1st phase of the ceasefire will hold.
The following market is a better indicator of the success of the 2nd phase and is currently at 36%.
The markets are still a little unclear on who they predict will control the Gaza Strip once the ceasefire has been resolved. The following market suggests 47% Israel and 21% Hamas but has only had 1 trade in the past 2 weeks so needs some traders to price in the latest news.
LA fires
Our thoughts are with those affected by the fire and we hope things go smoothly with the unimaginable challenges of rebuilding.
I won’t discuss the ethics and real-world implications of trading on disastrous events. But, I did want to share a couple of mana markets to supplement what you may have read in the news. Hopefully, it will be helpful and informative in some way.
Georgia halts all poultry production
Georgia, the US’s largest poultry-producing state, has just released (Jan 17th) a PR statement to suspend all poultry activities.
"For the first time since the ongoing, nationwide outbreak began in 2022, HPAI [Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza] has been confirmed in a commercial poultry operation in the state of Georgia," said Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper.
I’ve created a market on whether the suspension will be lifted before February. It may need a bit of time to attract traders and for the probability to settle.
While this is a significant development and US consumers will likely see a rise in chicken and egg prices, the risk of the next COVID is still largely dependent on a mutation allowing human-to-human transmission. The market on this is currently at a worryingly high 49%. This is lower than it was a few months ago following reports of suspected breakouts which have since been confirmed as false flags.
This continues to be an ongoing worry, especially as mutations allowing mammal-to-mammal transmission were already found last year. I’ll share more updates on this going forward and will look to create some markets on chicken and egg prices.
That’s all for this week. Thanks for reading.
David Chee
> false flags
From context, I think you might have intended "false alarms"? If not, I'm confused what events you're referring to.
The TikTok Ban: A Psychological Power Play
Donald Trump’s handling of the TikTok ban is a textbook example of psychological manipulation targeting Gen Z. Here’s how the strategy worked:
1. Manufactured Crisis
By framing TikTok as a national security threat, Trump exploited the illusory truth effect—repeating a claim until it felt true. Targeting TikTok, a Gen Z cultural hub, triggered reactance psychology, where restrictions fuel rebellion, making his eventual reversal more impactful.
2. Perception of Power
Trump’s decision to lift the ban created the illusion he was more powerful than Congress. This leveraged the halo effect, positioning him as an independent disruptor, resonating with Gen Z’s distrust of traditional institutions.
3. Oversimplified Narratives
The ban boiled down to “Trump vs. Congress,” exploiting Gen Z’s reliance on quick, surface-level content. This relied on heuristics—mental shortcuts that simplified the issue, obscuring the deeper manipulation at play.
Takeaway for Gen Z
Trump’s TikTok manoeuvre reveals how easily emotional triggers and oversimplified narratives can be used to manipulate even the most skeptical generation. The solution? Stay critical, dig deeper, and question who benefits from the spectacle.
GQ