Super Bowl LX

The Seahawks face the Patriots again and as a Seattle native, my mana is on a redemption arc.

It was one of the most memorable plays in Super Bowl history, and how you feel about it depends on which side you were cheering for. Or where you placed your bets.

February 1, 2015 birthed a lot of Monday Morning Quarterbacks, and as a Seattle native, I’ll just say it’s not my favorite NFL memory.

The Seattle Seahawks faced the New England Patriots in Glendale, AZ. With 27 seconds on the clock, the Hawks trailed by four points and found themselves with the ball at the one-yard line. Seems like a lock, right?

As Seattle fans started preemptively celebrating their second Super Bowl win in a row (they beat the Denver Broncos in 2014), QB Russell Wilson threw on a goal-line pass play that was… intercepted by the Patriots. The win gave the Pats their first Super Bowl ring since 2005 and left Seattle in a shambles.

*Annie Duke’s 2018 book Thinking in Bets opens with a chapter about this infamous play, the vitriol coach Pete Carroll received as a result, and serves as a canonical example of Resulting. It’s a worthwhile read if you’re interested.

Okay, this is Above the Fold, not ESPN (I haven’t forgotten), so why am I telling you all of this? Because a few hours from now, these two teams face each other again at Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara, CA.

Bowl Bets

Here’s a quick rundown of a few of the markets on the Manifold Super Bowl XL Dashboard:

For now, the Pats have a 31% chance of claiming another victory over the Hawks

There are a couple of other markets to arbitrage here and here.

If you’re into Prop Bets, you have more than 100 options to bet on and The Official will be resolving live

In it for the ads? Bayesian has a market for that! There have been rumors, teasers, and reveals already, but who will show up on the day?

Speaking of showing up, there’s a 33% chance TSwift is at the game

And a 69% chance Trump whines like a pathetic little bitch about halftime headliner Bad Bunny during the game

I, for one, assume the odds should rise if Bad Bunny wears a dress during the Halftime performance

Or if Bad Bunny makes a political statement

Bet on other things like:

• Will Super Bowl LX set a new all-time record for US television viewership? (31% chance)

• Super Bowl 2026: Color of Liquid Poured on Winning Head Coach (Green/Yellow is in the lead)

• Will there be a punt returned for a touchdown in Super Bowl LX? (only a 6% chance - if it happens, it would be the first time in Super Bowl history)

• Will the Super Bowl Final score be a Scorigami? (Scorigami is a final score that has never been recorded in NFL history, a 3% chance of that happening)

And a lot more.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, it’s a big day here in Seattle, I’m betting on a Redemption Arc, and I need to go grab a comfortable front row seat to lose my voice from.

May the Hawks odds be ever in your favor!

-Stef