Manifold, 2026 - New Year, New Stuff!

Fresh from Manifold Markets: retail, loans, -le games, and a limited-time charity giveaway

It’s a new year, full of opportunities, and Manifold is launching some exciting new features, which (of course) you can trade on.

Let’s take a look at some of the features that have gone live since the start of 2026.

Predictle

The latest hit -le game just dropped. Unlike spelling five-letter words (boring, static, generally unrelated to geopolitics), Predictle asks you to order five markets by probability. Here’s Predictle #15:

An astute forecaster playing this game should quickly reason:

Bitcoin generally goes up and likes round numbers (let’s say 75%) odds, Sotomayor will probably resign this year to let Trump appoint an adequate replacement (66%), Israel is famously rivals with Iran and will always look for a chance to go on the offensive (90%), Elon Musk, what is he, the Paypal guy, no chance he’s a trillionaire (3%), and didn’t Trump just make some sort of Board of Peace (50%)?

Uh-oh. Well, you get the general idea. After adjusting for market inflation, I was quickly able to reach the correct answer:

New Predictles drop every day at midnight, and Manifold has already crowned its first Predictle champion. After a week-long competition among dozens of Manifold users resulted in a tie between acclaimed Oscars trader, Ziddletwix, and the creator of the hottest bot on Manifold, Sketchy.

It took a ClaudeCode-powered head-to-head tournament to yield a winner:

Charity Giveaway

Manifold is currently running a charity giveaway, ending March 1st. Users can buy tickets to support the charities of their choice, and a lucky ticket will be drawn on that date to determine the winning charity. Currently, a little-known organization called Doctors Opposing Circumcision appears to be the leading candidate at 23%. If you support one of its competitors, like GiveWell, the Internet Archive, or Lightcone, you might want to chip in; may the odds be ever in your favor!

User Calibration

The new user calibration interface brings prediction market calibration into the modern era. While Brier scores have always been an odd fit with prediction markets, the new analytics include a Sharpe ratio, your max drawdown in the last 12 months, and a volatility score.

You can also track your calibration as a function of probability buckets. For example, this trader made a bajillion Mana betting that Biden would not be the 2024 nominee. See if you can identify the dot corresponding to that clever trade.

Mana Shop

By now, you may have noticed a shiny new link in the menu on the Manifold homepage.

While the Mana Shop has only recently had its grand opening (with more items yet to be added), you can already go here to purchase some premium digital goods, ranging from streak freezes at 150 mana a pop to a legendary royal crown overlay.

In between these extremes, you could consider purchasing a PAMPU skin (needs no explanation) or a scholarly graduation cap. The million mana crown overlay is still unclaimed, and there’s already a market on who will be the first to wear the crown.

Perhaps most intriguing is the new Manifold subscription service, available for purchase in the shop. Subscriptions are purchasable through mana, not USD, and many are arguing that the Plus subscription should pay for itself through quest reward bonuses alone. I started off with the modest Pro membership, but I might save up to get a Premium when I have a trading week worthy of self-reward.

There are also rumors (from official Manifold representatives) that physical goods may be available in the Mana Shop soon.

You can propose your own designs and bet on which designs will eventually be added as well:

New Financial System

Amidst all these changes, the Manifold team is working hard to ensure that the interest + loans system of the site can best incentivize long-term predictions. While users can still collect daily zero-interest loans as before, there is now the option for margin loans, as well as the early repayment of old loans.

Don’t get in too much debt, however, or you’ll risk being placed for eternity on the all-time Loss leaderboard.

Happy forecasting!

-Above the Fold