Forecasting the World Cup
Knockouts are underway!
The knockout stage has just begun at the World Cup with a match between the host nation Canada and the Republic of South Africa in the very Canadian city of Inglewood. The biggest question remaining is who will win… prediction markets or statistical modeling methods?
Unlike group stage games, which had to be resolved with multiple choice markets including the possibility of a draw, we will now have a single team advance from each match. You will be able to trade on any of the remaining games at Manifold’s tournament dashboard, where new matches will automatically propagate in the morning, and where we’ve also curated a number of community markets on the World Cup, from prop bets to pitch invasions.
Canada is a heavy favorite today, with Canadian star Jonathan David — who has been a disappointment in his first club season with Juventus — already having pulled in a hat trick in the group stage at this World Cup.
A big early debate has been the degree to which the host nations will get home-field advantage. While most of the remaining matches will occur in the United States, like today’s match, Canada and Mexico are also host nations, and Mexico historically has registered a significant home-field advantage, perhaps in part due to their elevation. Unfortunately, Mexico’s first match is against Ecuador, one of the only nations that is acclimated to playing in an even higher elevation arena.
The most prominent, public World Cup model, Nate Silver’s PELE model, gives Mexico, the US, and Canada, on average about 100 Elo points for their home field advantage, equivalent to the difference between the top tier of teams like Argentina, France, and Spain and teams like Netherlands, Columbia, or Norway, a few spots below, or alternatively the difference between Mexico/US/Canada and dark horse candidates like Switzerland, Japan, or Morocco, which is part of the reason that Mexico and the US still have over 1% odds to win.
France and Argentina are the two betting market favorites, but you already see some divergence between Elo-based statistical models and the betting markets here.
PELE gives Argentina, at the eve of the knockout round, about a 27% chance of taking home the Cup, a clear favorite. PELE also likes a couple teams with longer odds a little more than prediction markets, giving Colombia about twice as good odds to win it all, and had been giving Norway good odds until their bracket put them in the same R16 section as Brazil and Japan and the same QF as the winner of Mexico/Ecuador/England/DRC. PELE likes other teams, like England and Portugal, less than prediction markets, conversely.
The reigning champs, Argentina, have a great path to the Semifinals, matching up against Cape Verde in the first round, the winner of Australia/Egypt in the second, and then likely Colombia or Switzerland in the QF. The two next-best teams in the tournament, France and Spain, are both on the far side of the bracket. For this reason, Argentina has consistently risen in the rankings over the last week as the shape of the bracket has become clear:
The United States also has a decent path, with perhaps the easiest first round matchup imaginable in Bosnia and Herzegovina (no offense meant to our Bosnian users).
If the US advances, they’d expect to face the winner of Belgium and Senegal in Seattle, which all things considered is about as good of a corner of the bracket as they could hope to find themselves in. The US have decent odds of a QF appearance in sunny Los Angeles, very likely against a slightly underperforming Spanish squad.
You can also bet on tournament awards, like the Golden Boot (top scorer with assists as a tiebreaker), where Messi is already a heavy favorite due to being up two goals over the next highest candidates after the scoring-heavy group stage.
The Golden Glove award goes to the best goalkeeper, as selected by FIFA’s “Technical Study Group”). Argentinian fan favorite from the previous world cup, Emi Martinez, leads there as well.
Finally, the Golden Ball is voted on from a shortlist by media figures, and is essentially the “Finals MVP” of the World Cup.
Unlike on other prediction market platforms, and unlike Elo-based tournament models… on Manifold you can bet on the real issues at the World Cup.
Traders view it as highly likely that we’ll see more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz than goals at the world cup, although this wasn’t the case just a few days ago.
While initially traders thought some sort of political interference in the World Cup schedule was plausible, it now appears very unlikely over the remainder of the tournament.
One enterprising Manifold user is going to try to get into the World Cup Final in New Jersey for under $500:
User “nsokolsky” has written up the following criteria:
Resolves YES if all hold:
I, or a friend acting as designated proxy, arrive at a matchday access point with a notable concentration of ticket holders bound for the final (Penn Station shuttle queue, Secaucus Junction matchday platform, American Dream Mall walkway, the stadium gates or any equivalent gathering point), no earlier than 1:30 PM ET on July 19 2026, holding no valid ticket
Between arrival and the start of the second half, I/proxy obtain a ticket through any means: cash to a stranger, guest-entry on someone else’s account, credential transfer, last-minute FIFA release, FIFA Resale Marketplace, StubHub/SeatGeek/Vivid Seats or any other online platform
Total cash out the door is strictly under $500 USD. This includes ticket price plus all fees, taxes and transfer charges. Foreign currency converts at the spot rate at time of purchase. Free gifts from strangers count as $0
The QR scans at every required checkpoint and I/proxy walks into the stadium before the start of the second half
Any seat is fine. Nosebleed, obstructed view, standing room, whatever
Unlike “nsokoslky,” it’s almost guaranteed that another famous American will be in attendance:
Finally, in a surprisingly uncertain market, one creator has given handicaps to teams with worse odds, in a market on which team will score the most goals over the entirety of the World Cup:
Happy Forecasting!
-Above the Fold