Forecasting Reconciliation
In Congress, in the Church, and in New York
One Big Beautiful Bill
This week, we return to the greatest deliberative body in the world, the US Senate. For the last few months, Congress has been busy with negotiations over the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (though it is no longer called that officially). By noon today, it had passed the Senate, thanks to a tie-breaking vote by the Vice President, and is now being sent back to the House.
The fate of the annual budget reconciliation bill was murky and still is. Even this morning, Manifold traders expected further delays and negotiations before the bill would clear the Senate.
The bill stands less than an 80% chance of being signed into law by the end of July, with much of that uncertainty tied to the narrow margins required to pass the House. Though Republicans could only afford to lose 3 votes in the Senate (which they did, exactly), they also can only afford to lose about 3-6 votes in the House (depending on absences and abstentions), which represents a much smaller sliver of their caucus. Already several members of the House have expressed misgivings with the current version of the bill.
Some of these obstacles may be overcome through further amendments, potentially necessitating the bill to then return to the Senate. For example, the unpopular provision of the megabill that placed a 10-year moratorium on AI regulation was cleaved out of the bill by a 99-1 vote!
Other parts of the bill might represent an existential threat to the members of the House Republican caucus who oppose raising the debt, sales of public lands (now removed), increased spending, cuts to Medicaid, etc.
Also notably absent from the bill is any kind of long-term codification of DOGE’s deregulatory efforts. Much of this would have been deemed not salient to the budget by the Senate parliamentarian, but this isn’t earning the bill any favors with the shrinking Musk-aligned section of the Republican party. Rep Massie of Kentucky is one such member of congress, who has earned praise and financial support from Musk.
Musk himself has grown quite unhappy about the outcome of the reconciliation process, agitating to create a new political party. Manifold traders think this actually is likely to happen, aligning with Musk’s increasing turn against the MAGA coalition and the Republican party.
Manifold traders are more skeptical that this new party will be electorally successful, with a low chance of defeating (or even forcing the early retirements) of at least a few Republicans in 2026:
As to whether Musk will reconcile personally with Trump… well, those odds have fallen off a cliff in the last 24 hours:
A Different Kind of Reconciliation
Meanwhile, as the millennial anniversary of the Eastern Schism draws near, Pope Leo XIV (best known as the frontrunner for TIME Person of the Year) is aiming for a different sort of reconciliation. The Pope, who met last month with Patriarch Bartholomew I of Constantinople, primus inter pares of the Eastern Orthodox Church, now is said to be seeking to reestablish full communion with the Eastern Church.
This would be a monumental undertaking for the new Pope, and Manifold traders can bet on the odds here, where there are only two traders currently:
A reconciliation between two of the three major branches of Christianity would entail things like:
Reestablishing the primacy of the Pope for the Eastern Church.
Dropping the Filioque clause from the Nicene Creed, which asserts that the Holy Spirit proceeds from both the Father and the Son, rather than just the father.
Restoration of communion between the churches, allowing for mutual recognition of sacraments and cross-officiation of services.
An agreement of the governance structure between the two Churches.
While this seems far-fetched at the moment, given the thousand year history of the schism, both churches seem motivated to reconcile, given the tenuous standing of Christianity in the modern world. Moreover, tensions within the Eastern church due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine (!) may be exerting pressure towards a reunification with the West. Patriarch Bartholomew I has been on record stating his goals for reunification, and now the same can be said of Leo XIV. Of course, the odds are still low (the Manifold market indeed sits at ~20% in the next 25 years, on low trading volume).
No Reconciliation to be had in NYC
After last week’s Above the Fold, things obviously happened in NYC. Mamdani did win, and despite a relatively crushing defeat, Cuomo appears to be staying in the race. This makes it difficult for Mamdani’s rivals to consolidate the vote, especially considering Sliwa’s insistence on mounting a real campaign, rather than letting Adams pull Republican voters.
Manifold traders are slightly more bullish on Mamdani’s prospects than real-money markets, giving comparable odds to Cuomo and Sliwa but frowning on Adams’ odds in the general election. Still, 78% is far from a sure thing, and Mamdani will likely need to play the next few months carefully. Four months is a long time in as fast-paced a city as New York.
Of course, though unlikely, Trump could insert himself into the race through legal actions. While Manifold traders think it quite plausible that Trump may call for Mamdani’s deportation, I’d guess the odds that this is a serious factor in the race are low. However, Trump did just threaten to arrest Mamdani if he doesn’t cooperate with ICE, which raises the prospect of a confrontation that both sides might be excited to see occur.
Happy Forecasting!
-Above the Fold