Forecasting Primary Day
arguably the second most important election day of the year
The Golden State
When Above the Fold last covered the pretty-darn-important California primaries, Eric Swalwell had just dropped out and Tom Steyer was a heavy favorite to win the governor’s election, looking likely to advance to the runoff against CA Republican mainstay Steve Hilton.
Becerra has since risen steadily to the point that he’s a heavy favorite to win, even more so if Steyer fails to make the runoff tonight.
Most of Steyer’s hopes reside in making the runoff alongside Becerra, rather than winning the first round. This scenario, which is actually quite plausible, would lock Republicans out of the race.
As a forecaster, I greedily hope this happens; a Becerra-Hilton runoff would be fairly predictable, with markets likely to trade around 97-3 or something, for most of the year, barring another inconceivable scandal.
However, a Steyer-Becerra runoff would be tricky to forecast. Steyer is running to the left of Becerra, but not by much. Steyer would also be the anti-establishment candidate, and he’s a billionaire to boot. A successful businessman might be an easier sell for the ~1/3 of California voters that lean Republican.
Los Angeles
Meanwhile, in the LA mayoral election, Raman has slipped from first place to third in the last month, though the polling remains really close.
Here again we have the potential for some interesting runoffs. If Raman can beat out Pratt and make it to a runoff against Bass, it’s unclear whether her progressive bona fides will help or hurt her. The LA voter base is even more left-leaning than California’s at large, but at the same time, Raman doesn’t have the same ability to pivot to the center as Steyer might.
To complicate matters, basically any runoff combination appears possible here. Raman-Pratt would yield the most fireworks, locking Bass out of reelection, although markets give this only about an 8% chance of occurring.
Pelosi’s Seat
In what was once a competitive race, Weiner is all but guaranteed to win first in the jungle primary tonight.
Pelosi, for her part, had endorsed Connie Chan, but voters don’t seem to care, and Chan is in a struggle with Chakrabarti for second place, taking one of them to a runoff in November to decide who goes to Congress.
The actual election is in slightly more doubt. Chan and Chakrabarti are betting that they can win over non-primary voters by the fall, or perhaps erode Wiener’s lead.
But they face an uphill battle. Wiener is already polling somewhere around 40%, ahead of his nearest competitor by double digits, and Wiener is a savvy political operator who can point to a number of accomplishments in his time in office in the CA legislature, including a much-hyped bill on AI safety that was vetoed by Gov Newsom.
NY-12
Speaking of AI safety proponents entering Congress, Alex Bores is slightly trailing Micah Lasher in the primary race for NY’s twelfth Congressional seat.
Schlossberg, in another loss for the “endorsed by Pelosi” faction, appears likely to lose in the primary. The race is likely a bellwether for how much the public cares about AI right now, with Bores emerging as an anti-AI-company champion, commensurate with heavy spending against him from the Leading the Future PAC.
Maine
Remember how Janet Mills suspended her campaign in the Senate primary, basically handing the race to Platner, who had had >99% odds to win the race just a few days ago?
Welp… yet another scandal has plunged Platner into the national eye, this time for sexting women other than his wife. While the Nazi tattoo and years of questionable forum posts may have not been the nail in the coffin for many voters, it’s possible that the mounting scandals could cast Platner as a liar or a narcissist in the eyes of voters, making them reevaluate previous allegations in a different light. The Democrats do not want a near lock in the Maine senate race to erode into a competitive race, where they’re forced to spend large sums defending an indefensible candidate. Platner’s odds have slipped from nearly 80% down to 60% in the general election, these last few days:
The primary isn’t for another week, so there’s perhaps a tiny crack in the door for Mills to mount a preference cascade comeback.
Iowa
Finally, remember that contentious Senate primary in Iowa? Well… the polling has completely flipped in the last month, with centrist Josh Turek pulling ahead of progressive Zach Wahls.
Turek, widely considered more competitive in a general election than Wahls, will make this race to succeed the retiring Senator Ernst a close one. Currently, Turek has almost 40% odds to win this fall, which might all but decide control of the Senate!
Indeed, Iowa is the second-most likely state to be the tipping point Senate seat, after Ohio.
Roundup
Colombia’s presidential election appears likely to surface another shocking far-right victory in South America. The relative unknown entity, Abelardo de la Espriella, is heavily favored in prediction markets over leftist Ivan Cepeda. De la Espriella just placed ahead of Cepeda in the first round, with runoffs to follow in less than a month.
Here again we see a big divergence between polling and prediction markets. Polling has Cepeda as a very narrow favorite going into the runoff, while prediction markets are mostly skeptical of that lead. The third place candidate was a moderate right-wing candidate, making it complex to determine where her voters will settle in the runoff.
Across the pond, the French Open will crown a new champion, with favorites Sinner and Djokovic already out in the early rounds. Alexander Zverev, the only player left who has made a Grand Slam final, won his match this morning, leaving six rivals remaining in the other 3/4 of the bracket.
Happy Forecasting!
-Above the Fold