Cash prizes for good predictions
Exploring cash prizes, uncapping charity donations (act now!), and making the mana supply sustainable.
Hi Manifold users! We are super excited to share one of Manifold’s biggest additions to the platform since inception: cash prizes!
Summary:
We are exploring letting users earn real cash prizes by participating in a curated set of high-quality markets. Pending logistical issues, we aim to launch this in 1-2 months.
To make this possible while ensuring that all mana liabilities can be met, we’re changing the purchase rate to 1 USD : 1,000 mana on May 15th. See below for a more detailed rationale.
We are honoring all donations at the original 100 mana : 1 USD until May 15th. Inactive accounts can continue to donate mana at this rate for the rest of the year. If you want to make a large donation, apply for a free loan on your investments. Donate your mana today!
We are working today on a killer feature that will supercharge your forecasts: real cash prizes. We plan to enable cash payouts under the sweepstakes model.
Mana will remain as a purely play-money currency used to bet on markets. But, a curated selection of markets will pay out sweepstakes Prize Points instead of Mana. Prize Points can then be redeemed directly for cash. The change to a sweepstakes model will provide the incentive needed to bring higher-quality forecasting to our platform.
We are working closely with our lawyers to roll this feature out as soon as possible, but we can’t yet guarantee a timeline.
Thanks for joining us on this journey. We are so excited to see how user-created markets evolve in this world of real money incentives.
FAQ
Q: Which markets will allow users to earn prize points/cash prizes?
A: Manifold plans to curate a set of Prize Markets, which will pay out Prize Points instead of Mana after resolution. These markets will be chosen to have high-quality, unambiguous resolution criteria. Most markets will continue to pay out mana on resolution, as before. Prize Points will be redeemable back to mana at a 1-1 rate if users do not want to cash out.
Q: Will Manifold still have personal, subjective, fun, and silly markets?
A: Absolutely! These markets may not be eligible for Prize Points but will continue to be an important part of the Manifold ecosystem.
Q: How exactly could Prize Points work?
A: We are still working out the details, but here’s one possible way it might work:
You spend 50,000 mana to buy 100,000 YES shares on a Prize Market. The market resolves YES; you now have 100,000 Prize Points. You complete KYC verification to enable cash payouts. You redeem the 100,000 Prize Points for a cash prize of $95, paid out to your bank account.
In addition to market resolutions, users will be able to earn Prize Points from user referrals, league prizes, and other avenues.
Prize Points are not earned by selling shares - only from markets resolving.
We are exploring other Prize Point redemption options including digital goods/cosmetics on Manifold, merch, and gift cards.
We also intend to continue the charity program going forward with Prize Points (rather than mana) being redeemable for donation.
Q: What is the legal status of online sweepstakes in the US?
A: Online sweepstakes are legal in the United States, provided they adhere to both federal and state regulations. These regulations require a "no purchase necessary" method of entry. Sweepstakes platforms like Chumba and Fliff have been operating since 2017 and 2019 (respectively) and process billions of dollars in annual revenue. Sweepstakes usage is limited or restricted in a few states (e.g. HI, ID, NV, TN, WA).
Q: Will I be eligible to earn cash prizes outside the US?
A: Probably. There are a few provinces, jurisdictions, and countries that prohibit sweepstakes, but we believe most locales our users reside will be supported.
Q: What platform changes are required to enable cash prizes?
A: With cash prizes involved, we can no longer be so cavalier about giving out mana. We plan to reduce bonuses, shore up rules on market resolutions, and ensure the mana supply grows at a sustainable rate.
To that end, the mana purchase rate of $1 will rise from M100 to M1,000. Our tentative plan is for Prize Points to also be in the realm of 1000 : 1 to USD once cashouts are enabled. This is a one-off change to ensure that we will be able to financially back any prizes we issue in the future.
Users can donate their mana at the existing rate of M100 : $1 until May 15th. However, we will work with anyone to help them donate what they hoped, even beyond this date. There will be no donation cap from now on and Manifold looks forward to donating tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars to charities of your choice. Inactive accounts can continue to donate at this rate for the rest of the year.
Q: I want to donate mana but don’t want to liquidate my portfolio. What do I do?
A: Fill out this form to receive an interest-free loan from Manifold allowing you to donate the value of your shares immediately. Do this before May 15th.
Q: Without bonuses, what will incentivize creators to create markets?
A: Besides intrinsic interest in getting their questions answered, users will be able to earn fees from the trade volume in their market. Sweepstakes prizes are thus enabling much of the original vision for Manifold. We also hope initiatives such as the partner program, which may require adjustments, will help.
Q: Is Manifold honoring all of its previous financial commitments?
A: Yes, no one is financially worse off as a result of this change. Users interested in mana as a vehicle to donate to charity will be able to donate in full, over and above Manifold’s promised $10k / month donation cap. Secondly, users not interested in donating to charity gain something new—the ability to win real cash. Thirdly, everyone’s leaderboard record and profit graphs will be preserved at the new 10x rate.
Q: What was the business rationale for changing the mana purchase rate?
A: In order to have real cash prizes, we must take on mana as a liability. The current mana supply, if cashed out at a redemption rate of M100 : $1, would be a liability of $1.2mm. Manifold currently has around ~$1.5mm in the bank. Supporting real cash payouts means taking the nominal mana liability very seriously, including having segregated accounts for cash that could be withdrawn, closely tracking the mana supply, etc. This remains true even if we have good reason to believe that users’ monthly withdrawal rate will be limited (which we do).
We considered many options before arriving at this decision weighing multiple competing goals. First and foremost, we want to ensure that we honor all explicit promises we've made. Preserving users' forecasting track records (including profit graphs and leaderboard positions) is also a key priority. Additionally, we do not want to retroactively mess with user balances or bets that have already been placed. At the same time, we need to ensure Manifold's financial commitments are sustainable so that the platform can continue operating. Finally, we aim to keep the nominal mana purchase and redemption rate at M$100 to $1.
The solution we've found that best satisfies these goals is to change the mana purchase rate going forward. This change allows us to maintain the other key properties and priorities listed above.
Q: Will Manifold keep the new purchase rate of $1 to M1,000?
A: Yes, we are moving to a new financially sustainable equilibrium, including a pledge to hold enough cash to pay out all liabilities at this new rate in a separate account. Users can track the mana supply in real time on our stats page.
Q: I purchased mana this year expecting it to retain value. Won’t it just be worth 10x less on May 15th?
A: We will automatically credit you with 9x the mana after the mana purchase rate changes on May 15th, unless we’ve determined you’ve already used this mana to donate. If you prefer a refund, you can contact us at info@manifold.markets.
Q: What about users who don’t see this in time or are inactive and don’t return to the site for several months? Will they miss their chance to donate?
A: Inactive users who wish to donate mana they owned on May 15th at the original redemption rate will be able to do so for the remainder of the year by contacting us at info@manifold.markets.
Q: Where can I find a list of other planned changes?
Q: Where can I bet on the success or failure of Manifold’s sweepstakes program?
A: See our Sweepstakes dashboard.