Cash prizes are here!

Our biggest announcement ever!

I’m thrilled to share Manifold’s biggest announcement ever. For the first time in Manifold history, you can earn real cash prizes for your predictions on the platform!

Introducing sweepstakes

Manifold is introducing a new set of sweepstakes questions, chosen to have high-quality, unambiguous resolution criteria. These questions are denominated in sweepcash instead of mana. On resolution, successful predictors can redeem their sweepcash for real USD withdrawable to their bank account.

We quietly launched in beta last week to get feedback and our sweepcash markets already have 20,000 in volume!

So how does it work? By default, all markets on Manifold will continue to use mana, our non-redeemable play-money. We are not making any changes to mana markets and users can continue to trade on them as they always have. However, selected questions will have both a mana market and a sweepcash market allowing users to toggle between the two. These two markets will share the question title, description, and comments but will have separate probabilities, trades, and winners. Sweepstakes markets will be managed and resolved solely by Manifold. To see an example, check out our largest sweepstakes market here.

Users may only withdraw sweepcash once it has been used to win a resolved market. Sweepcash from gifts, bonuses, and exiting a market early will not be eligible for withdrawal until it has been used to win a market. You can see how much sweepcash you are eligible to withdraw on the redeem page.

If you still have questions please check out the sweepstakes FAQ or ask in Discord.

Launch Gift

As a token of our appreciation for your participation on Manifold, we are offering a one-time sweepcash gift that may be larger for more active users. Be sure to check the size of your gift on your profile page.

Eligible users should verify their accounts by election day (Nov 5th) to claim their free sweepcash. Non-eligible users may either wait for sweepstakes to launch in their region or reach out to us, and we will be happy to donate on your behalf before the end of the year.

In addition to this launch gift, users can expect frequent sweepcash bonuses such as daily streak rewards. This will allow all eligible users to continuously participate for free on sweepstakes markets! New eligible sign-ups will also receive free sweepcash.

Eligibility

Our new sweepstakes markets are available to most U.S. residents over the age of 18.

Unfortunately, residents in Washington D.C., Delaware, Idaho, Michigan, and Washington are NOT eligible to participate. Residents of non-U.S. countries are also NOT eligible. We hope to expand to more countries soon and will continue to improve the mana markets for you to enjoy.

Phone verification and enhanced KYC will be required to participate in sweepstakes.

Celebratory limited-time offer

To celebrate sweepstakes we are offering a limited-time offer. Save up to 64% on your first mana purchase after completing KYC. All mana purchases come with a free sweepcash bonus gift!

Sweepcash winnings can be redeemed as 1.00 sweepcash to 1.00 USD (minus a 5% withdrawal fee).

Other updates

• In light of sweepcash and the launch gift (remember to check how much you are receiving), we have deleted prizepoints and converted any remaining back into mana.

• We have updated our T&C’s, privacy policy, and added a new section on sweepstakes rules.

• The creator partner program is still on pause, but will hopefully resume shortly with a new format.

• Expect to see things such as unique trader bonuses and maybe even loans brought back to mana in the future!

• Sweepcash referral bonus will be coming soon(ish).

• We are looking to gift 40 sweepcash to returning users who haven’t used the site in 6+ months and would share their screen on a call for a 30-minute usability test. Please email david@manifold.markets if you are interested (and refrain from checking Manifold until the call so we get your true first impressions). Limited slots are available.

With the launch of sweepstakes, we aim to promote our existing prediction markets to a wider audience and improve Manifold’s sustainability. We’re also excited to observe how the odds on our markets will shape out with these changes. We’ve already noticed differences in probability between our sweepcash markets, mana markets, and other platforms.

Ultimately, we hope the forecasts produced by our markets will continue to act as a valuable source of accountable news.

Good luck in the markets!