Another factor to consider besides "preference cascades" -- if the leftist pundits actually want the Democrats to win, it seems like a bad idea, bad discipline to be talking bad about Biden's capabilities in public if he's still the presumptive candidate. It's good material for Trump to re-use: "Even Van Jones doesn't believe in the man anymore."
You could argue that maybe they have individual incentives to speak truth even when it's bad for their side, but pundits certainly don't seem to act that way any other day of the year.
Biden and Trump both performed better than my very low expectations for the debate. What shocked me was the way that all the talking heads on CNN turned on him instead of trying harder to spin it.
Also, this part doesn't make sense to me:
>If he dropped out, those delegates would be released to vote for who they chose. But note that the delegates are still appointed by Biden, making it unlikely that they would pick a candidate significantly more left-wing than Biden.
I don't understand what "left-wing" has anything to do with anything here. Is there a candidate that is being discussed that you think is implausible because he or she is too far left?
I doubt ideology is going to play any direct role here. The delegates will consider some combination of electability and their personal interests (i.e., how good are their personal contacts with this or that candidate's staff). The Democrats' ideology for this campaign season is "beat Trump."
Sorry the section you quoted was a little unclear - I agree none of the candidates being discussed widely are too left-wing. I think it’s part of the reason some people you might think of as possible candidates (Elizabeth Warren maybe) haven’t been discussed, though.
Maybe it doesn't count, but LBJ dropped out of the presidential race in late March 1968, a few weeks after the New Hampshire primary but before the DNC.
Good summary.
Another factor to consider besides "preference cascades" -- if the leftist pundits actually want the Democrats to win, it seems like a bad idea, bad discipline to be talking bad about Biden's capabilities in public if he's still the presumptive candidate. It's good material for Trump to re-use: "Even Van Jones doesn't believe in the man anymore."
You could argue that maybe they have individual incentives to speak truth even when it's bad for their side, but pundits certainly don't seem to act that way any other day of the year.
Biden and Trump both performed better than my very low expectations for the debate. What shocked me was the way that all the talking heads on CNN turned on him instead of trying harder to spin it.
Also, this part doesn't make sense to me:
>If he dropped out, those delegates would be released to vote for who they chose. But note that the delegates are still appointed by Biden, making it unlikely that they would pick a candidate significantly more left-wing than Biden.
I don't understand what "left-wing" has anything to do with anything here. Is there a candidate that is being discussed that you think is implausible because he or she is too far left?
I doubt ideology is going to play any direct role here. The delegates will consider some combination of electability and their personal interests (i.e., how good are their personal contacts with this or that candidate's staff). The Democrats' ideology for this campaign season is "beat Trump."
You raise some great points!
Sorry the section you quoted was a little unclear - I agree none of the candidates being discussed widely are too left-wing. I think it’s part of the reason some people you might think of as possible candidates (Elizabeth Warren maybe) haven’t been discussed, though.
Maybe it doesn't count, but LBJ dropped out of the presidential race in late March 1968, a few weeks after the New Hampshire primary but before the DNC.
Yeah, that's a good point of comparison! (I didn't mention it because he wasn't the presumptive nominee at that point.)