An end to Al-Assad and Ivy league 26-year old charged with murder

Syria coup successful, Luigi Mangione charged with murder, Trump TIME's person of the year, and more

Syria’s 13-year civil war comes to an end

After over five decades of autocratic rule by the Al-Assad family, it comes to a shocking end with an abrupt advance by Syrian rebels leading to the capture of its capital, Damascus.

The civil war, which began in 2011, is estimated to have displaced over half of Syria’s population from their homes, with millions of those fleeing abroad as refugees. Manifold’s markets have been confident all year that the Russian and Iranian-backed al-Assad regime would remain impervious to attempted coups predicting an 86% chance of remaining in power until the end of 2025, and a 92% chance until the end of 2024.

The shorter-term market featured below was created in response to the coalition of Syrian opposition groups formed on November 27th.

Together these rebel forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and supported by Turkish-backed factions, launched a major assault seizing control of significant cities with minimal resistance. You can see the dips this caused in the market’s confidence in Assad remaining in power with an all-time low of 55%.

However, the market quickly returned to its baseline of 86-90% as Syria launched counterattacks and Iran’s top diplomat met with Assad, reaffirming Iran’s long-term support of the regime.

This is why it was so unexpected when the rebels were successfully able to take control over the weekend with al-Assad fleeing to Russia. Western countries including the US celebrated, with French President Emmanuel Macron posting on 𝕏, “The barbaric state has fallen. At last.”

There will be much uncertainty over what will happen next in the country, but millions may finally be able to return home. The markets predict a 32% chance of a legitimate election being held before the end of next year and a 45% by the end of 2026.

Syrian fighters have appointed Mohammed al-Bashir to be their country’s caretaker prime minister until March 1, 2025. The market predicts a 48% chance he will still be in power until this date, but has only 8 traders and needs more.

Shooter of United Healthcare CEO arrested and charged

On December 4th, Brian Thompson was murdered on the streets of New York by a masked assailant who shot him in the back multiple times. Bullets and shell casings were found with the words “delay”, “deny”, and possibly “depose”. This indicated a premeditated murder, likely by someone who had been wronged by UnitedHealthcare. You can see the odds of some of the motives from the prop bet market hundreds of traders were speculating on.

Five days later, on Monday 9th of December, a suspect named Luigi Mangione was arrested in a McDonalds when diners and staff called the police to report his likeness to CTTV images that had been released. He was found to possess a 3D-printed loaded pistol, a 3d printed silencer, a fake ID, and a manifesto that has yet to be officially made public.

You can predict what the contents of the manifesto will be here:

Due to a leak from Ken Klippenstein, it seems likely we already have the final version of what was written.

The market gives a 76% he is convicted of murder by the end of 2025.

Note that the markets give a 94% chance he was the person who shot Brian Thompson, most of the doubt of conviction is due to whether his sentence may be reduced from murder or take a long time. Many speculate based on his social media posts that he was experimenting with Psychedelic mushrooms to manage his pain from a back surgery and had a mental breakdown after disappearing for 6 months. The market gives a 78% chance his defense will try and use this.

Trump leaked as TIME’s Person of the Year

In other breaking news, Trump was just announced as TIME’s Person of the Year by various major media. This follows TIME releasing their shortlist a couple of days ago which included names such as Trump, Joe Rogan, Kate Middleton, Elon Musk, and Kamala Harris amongst others.

This is the second time Trump has won the award, although it does not come as a surprise as most president-elects have been named the year they won the election. Manifold’s market was essentially 1:1 with Trump’s chances of winning up until he did win at which point it diverged and ranged between ~60-80% over the past month.

One game left of the Chess World Championship

One of our most popular markets this week has been whether Ding Liren will triumph over Gukesh Dommaraju in the final match to decide the 2024 Chess World Champion.

The market saw a swing against Liren as he lost his 11th game, but quickly recovered when he won the following game. They then tied their 13th game leaving them all square with just one game remaining which slightly favours Liren as he has the white pieces.

Kash Patel is one step closer to becoming FBI Director

Trump’s controversial nomination of Kash Patel to be FBI Director is one step closer to reality as news broke that current FBI Director Chris Wray intends to resign at the end of Biden’s term. This news has led to a slight increase on Manifold, but, it is clear the market still rides on the Senate’s decision in January.

Thanks for reading! Also, if you weren’t aware, Manifold has brought back loans, so start trading to your heart’s content!

Be sure to check out your Manifold Wrapped before the end of the year by visiting your profile! Here’s a screenshot from mine (I made the most being bearish on Manifold.love and lost the most being bullish on charity donations lol).

See you in next week’s news updates, and hopefully in the markets before then!

David Chee