Above the Folded Secret Ballot
A conclave draws nigh, and tensions run high
The Papal Conclave
Amidst a day of profound grief following the passing of the globally beloved Pope Francis, attention has begun to turn towards the process of the next papal conclave, one of the highest stakes elections of the decade.
Unlike most elections that Manifold traders partake in, the Papal Conclave has no polling, no public statements of support, an electorate that is radically changed since the previous election, and a process so opaque that it involves the sequestration of the voters. In this conclave, forecasters have to balance several unique considerations:
A voting process requiring a 2/3 majority. Will the growing partisan divide in the rest of the world bleed into the difficulty in consensus-building during a papal conclave?
Roughly 80% of the current electorate was appointed by Pope Francis since 2013. Will this guarantee a new pope following in his ideology?
For perhaps the first time, voting blocs representing the progressive, centrist, and conservative constituencies among the cardinals intersect with growing geopolitical voting blocs from Africa and Asia. How this will play out during successive rounds of voting is unclear.
Thermostatic backlash to the reforms of Francis (perhaps an anti-incumbency bias even in the Vatican), balanced against a desire to have continuity.
There are two front-runners among the candidates thought of as papabile. Pietro Parolin, the 70 year old Vatican Secretary of State, is a moderate, consensus candidate that might prevail across a longer conclave with deadlocked voting blocs. Luis Antonio Tagle, the 67 year old former archbishop of Manila, is a progressive acolyte of Pope Francis, representing a growing constituency of Asian cardinals. Behind the two are a number of other papabile cardinals, representing the Jersualem patriarchate (Pizzaballa), the conservative wing (Erdo, Turkson, and Sarah), those wishing for a church more open to the LGBT community (Zuppi), and the African voting bloc (Turkson and Sarah).
By the way, when staking out your positions on the conclave (which, contrary to popular belief, has not been an excommunicate-able offense since 1918, and especially not with play currency), note Manifold’s new bet receipts feature:
The conclave’s live updates—in the form of black or white smoke—are watched ardently by supporters from outside the Sistine Chapel. Despite no conclave in the last century lasting more than 4 days, Manifold traders assign a decent bit of weight to a longer conclave in 2025, perhaps reflecting the lack of a clear favorite. Traders give roughly 1 in 4 odds to a conclave going into a fifth day (or “Day 4” in this zero-indexed market).
Most of the recent conclaves have lasted between 4 and 8 ballots, and Manifold bettors expect similar dynamics this time around.
As for the papal name that will define the coming era of the Catholic church, forecasters think Francis or Benedict are most likely, with decent odds of a new name as well, following in the tradition of our most recent pope.
Pentagon Drama
After multiple compounding scandals, related to a second Signal group chat with his family members, and the firings of his most senior staffers, Pete Hegseth appears to be on thin ice.
Manifold traders remain cautiously skeptical that Hegseth will in fact lose his job, but still give about 30-40% odds to Hegseth leaving the Pentagon by July.
Hegseth now is the overwhelming favorite to be the first member of Trump’s cabinet to leave their role, despite the turmoil with Lutnick (Commerce) and Bessent (Treasury) over the turbulent rollout of the nation’s tariffs policies and a growing economic crisis.
It’s also unclear how much of the crisis is due singularly to the Signal group chat…
…and how much of it is related to the difficulties Hegseth is facing in achieving some of the administration’s goals in reshaping the Pentagon. Hegseth burned through much of his political capital in threading the needle of a tense senate confirmation, followed by replacing a number of top military officials. Now he may be encountering the realities of the challenging, global, strategic realignment that has been placed on his shoulders.
Close, but no Ceasefire
Perhaps someone in Putin’s war room is a Manifold (or Polymarket) user, as there was an 11th hour attempt at an “Easter ceasefire,” just before the end of Trump’s first 90 days. This seemed specifically designed to confuse and sabotage clean resolutions for prediction markets, as it was to some extent “announced by both sides,” and was indeed a “ceasefire.” However, it never seemed to actually take hold, with neither side actually ceasing hostilities, and both sides documenting the violations of the other.
While the longer-term odds of a ceasefire hold steady, this might reflect the odds of a “technical” ceasefire increasing while the odds of an actual permanent end to the conflict decrease:
Manifold traders continue to have faith that a critical minerals deal is still in the cards, with the US providing some degree of military support in exchange for access to Ukrainian rare earth elements.
Roundup
Carney has built up his largest lead in prediction markets, following a solid debate performance against Poilievre with only a week left in the campaign.
You can also forecast the location of White Lotus Season 4, balancing the effect of Four Seasons Resort locations, the desire for a new continent, and the director’s fear of the cold:
Feel free to speculate on whether Trump will (jokingly) suggest himself for Pope, as well:
Happy Forecasting!
-Above the Fold