Above the Fold - No more Fees!
Unwatch markets, new Help center, substack embeds and more updates!
Welcome to this week’s newsletter!
Let’s dive straight in~
Watch/Unwatch markets 👁️
Whenever you bet, comment or add an answer to a market you will automatically watch it. You can manually adjust watched markets by clicking the eye under the graph on a market page to watch or unwatch a market. Watching a market causes you to receive notifications on the market whenever a new comment is made or the market resolves.
Check out the notifications page for the specifics and customisation.
Manifold embeds on Substack are now public!
As alluded to in last week’s newsletter, Manifold embeds are now available for everyone to use on Substack! Simply copy the URL to a market and paste it into Substack to generate a live-updating, interactable component showing the market. Readers can bet on binary markets without having to leave the page!
This is super exciting for us and one of our main goals with Manifold is that our markets will eventually be embedded alongside many mainstream media and no post would be complete without one!
If you’re not viewing this through the email view, here is an example of what it will look like:
New Tournament Page and Cause Exploration Prizes
With increasing tournaments on our site, we decided to add a new tournament page. You can now explore tournaments and easily see their prizes, some real money and some mana. Two new tournaments have just begun:
Predicting the winners of Open Philathrophy’s Cause Exploration Prizes.
Link to contest’s group.
Predicting which SF 2022 ballots will be passed.
Removed all fees.
Loans: Now you receive 2% of your investment value back as a loan each day (up from 5% per week).
Streaks: Now capped at 5 days with M$10 per day (previously 20 days with M$5 per day).
Improved loading times, particularly for notification and profile pages.
Recommended markets: 6 markets at the bottom of a market page with related markets from the same creator or group.
New users start with 5 free markets (all current users’ next 5 markets will also be free)!
Markets on Manifold
We don’t have any user interviews or writeups this week so instead, we are going to be taking a look at some of our most exciting markets.
There’s been close to 30 bets over the past day on whether Ukraine with regain control of Kherson after the news of Ukraine’s counter-offensive. Richard Hanania also posted a market to the Salem Center on whether the attack would be successful, currently at 75% that Russia retains control for the next 2 months.
A popular market about AI that reflects discussion on recent breakthroughs with AI-generated art software such as stable diffusion.
An interesting market that could teach you about some cool concepts. Also shows the value Manifold can provide users; facilitating the sharing of information.
Adjacent content to check out 👀
A sneak peak of Nathan Young’s upcoming forecasting question generation platform!
This will allow users to collaborate to determine what the most effective questions are to ask on websites such as Manifold to produce useful information.
Superlinear - a new initiative by our friends from Nonlinear to host decentralised prize funding.
They are granting 10+ regrantors up to $50,000 to fund contests.
A range of other contests and bounties they are currently hosting (with some REALLY big ones soon to come).
Eg. Tweet a review of a listed book or article to win $40-200
A collection of EA competitions not hosted by Superlinear
Thanks for reading! Hope you enjoyed all the embedded markets and please send us a message if you start using them in your posts :)
David Chee, Community Manager