Above the Fold: Do you want a guaranteed date?

Manifold Love premium and Bet on Love soundtrack are out now!

If you are a prediction market user: Congratulations!!! This is the year you are destined to find love.

And if you’ve already found love… why are you here, did you forget it was Valentine’s Day? We really aren’t that interesting. Go away.

Markets become a premium feature on Manifold Love

Thanks to changes to how Manifold Love’s prediction markets work, we are happy to announce that our app now has a 100% chance of finding you love!

Okay, but seriously, for $100 we will guarantee you 3 dates with a suitable match, or will refund you the full amount, no strings attached! But feel free to keep using Tinder Platinum for $600/year with its comparable guarantee — emotional trauma.

We realised that having a market on every person’s potential matches just didn’t make sense. There was a lack of incentives to trade on a stranger’s market with factors such as insider trading reducing room to profit. And while a minority of friends did trade on each other, it unfortunately wasn’t enough to justify the complexity of the app’s UI for the majority of users.

James, who is still spending the majority of his time working hard on improving Manifold Love, doesn’t want to give up on prediction markets. But for it to work it needs to be more exclusive with improved incentives. As such, it is now a premium feature on the app, which requires 10,000 mana ($100) to purchase. The full cost goes towards a single market on whom you will go on 3 dates with. This market will N/A if no dates ever occur refunding you the $100. The hope is that having fewer markets will more appropriately align with the current number of traders and that the high liquidity will be too enticing to resist.

Make sure to check out the premium profile markets, there’s huge mana to be won.

Bet on Love followup

If you missed it, the show was a smashing success! A full-blown musical with elements of a game show, dating, and rationalist in-jokes thrown into the mix.

The full vod is available on YouTube:

(If you haven’t watched it yet feel free to stop scrolling and click it, you don’t want to miss what Grimes coined as the “future of reality tv x theater”.

Or are you just here to groove to the tunes? Good news: they're now available here, and elsewhere soon too! And guess what? There's a whisper in the air about studio-produced versions laying down tracks soon.

And just a friendly nudge to all you romantics out there, if you've got a crush on any of our dazzling contestants—or even the enchanting Aella—what are you waiting for!? Their profiles are on Manifold Love, just waiting for you to slide into them.

And if you still can’t get enough of the show, make sure you join the betting on these markets:

Moisture meter auction

This Valentine's Day give the gift of moisture.

We are auctioning off a piece of Manifold and theater history: the fabled Moisture Meter from Bet on Love! This beautiful piece of printed posterboard will indicate your level of moistness like never before!

If you're already getting wet at the prospect, the way it works is simple: We're hosting a second-price sealed-bid auction. To participate, DM @BetonLove on Manifold with your bid in mana. The auction will resolve at the second-highest bid placed before the 21st (Pacific Time).

Note that the bid does not include shipping. You must physically pick up the Meter from our office in SF or pay an additional Ṁ20,000 in shipping.

Manifold in the Press this week

• Dedicated Times article on Manifold Love https://time.com/6694798/manifold-love-dating-markets/

• Mention by Matt Levine on Bloomberg https://twitter.com/matt_levine/status/1757479055232786784

• Our new Wikipedia page (~93% it stays up) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manifold_(prediction_market)

Thanks for reading.

Hope you have a lovely Valentine’s Day.

David Chee