Above the Fold: Click, Bet, Click.

One click betting, Numeric markets beta, an improved create page, and embedded markets

Welcome back!

Tons of new features and improvements to review this week: One click betting, Numeric markets beta, an improved create page, and embedded markets.

Let’s jump straight in!

One Click Betting

Addicted yet?

Each click of a button bets M$10 on a Yes/No market. You can even spam click your entire balance away!

One of our big priorities right now is increasing the volume of bets. Frankly, many markets fail to get enough liquidity to become exciting and profitable. We hope this is one of many future updates that will encourage people to bet on more markets, even if in small amounts.

We are still considering how to make this feature more intuitive for new users, reduce misclicks/add undo, and decide how it should function for numeric and free response markets. Vote on whether you like the addition of one click betting here: https://manifold.markets/SG/poll-should-we-keep-the-quickbet-ar.

Numeric Markets Beta

What started as a hack-a-thon project is now the 3rd fully functional market type!

There is clearly a need for numeric markets as the previous solution was to create a free response market and just add answers that covered a range of numbers. We still need to figure out exactly what that looks like, so expect numeric markets to undergo significant iterations.

When a numeric market is created, the range of possible resolution numbers is divided into 200 buckets. Upon betting on a value, users buy shares in several of the surrounding buckets, which are bought in a general distribution.

Improved Create Page

With these changes, we shift our focus to buttons, rather than forcing users to enter custom values. This will help make market creation self-evident for new users whilst still providing options for advanced users.

Embedded Markets

One of our aims at Manifold Markets is to empower effective altruism through the use of prediction markets!

Thanks to Sinclair, you can now embed Manifold Markets on the EA forums, Less Wrong and the AI Alignment Forum! More explanation on how this works can be found in this article.

Awesome websites and markets!

• Wasabipesto has used our public API to create this insane stats page! Did you know there is a user who has already created 194 markets!?

• Our friends at Research Bet have just launched their new website, which features embedded Manifold Markets. Be sure to check them out if you have an interest in scientific studies!

• Help #2 Leaderboard user Joel Becker name his new puppy here!

• A big point of recent discussion has been whether betting should be made fully public (with the intent of adding private option in the future). What do you think? Join the discussion here!

• “https://manifold.markets/DavidChee/do-you-read-the-newsletter” ;)?

Thanks as always for reading!

-David Chee, community manager