Above the Fold, Cards of Gold

What markets think will happen with the "Gold Card" pathway to citizenship, the Department of Education, and the rule of law in the US

The Fate of the Department of Education

Manifold has a leg up on real-money platforms in a country navigating a rapidly changing legal system. Take, for example, the recent executive order to shutter the Department of Education. The president cannot, without the consent of Congress, close a congressionally-mandated agency such as the DoEd. However, how would a market on the fate of the DoEd resolve if all the employees are fired, the executive branch ignores court orders to reinstate them, and the funding for the agency is fully impounded? And how would it resolve if the functions of the DoEd are subsumed by other cabinet-level agencies and the department renames in name only? When there are open questions on whether the system of checks and balances between our branches of government will hold, nearly every market on a government action or policy change has the potential to become a rules debate. The gentle touch of subjectivity and flexibility on a play-money platform like Manifold makes markets dealing with these kinds of legal uncertainties far more informative, allowing users to bet on a wider range of outcomes. However, that doesn’t mean it’s any easier or less confusing.

There are different criteria that might help you get at the underlying question: “Essentially, will the DoEd exist in a few years?” For instance, if the Wiki article refers to the DoEd in past tense, that might be a pretty good proxy:

Alternatively, you could bet on whether “the Department of Education’s authority/power is significantly limited in any way,” which shows a much higher probability, given recent actions:

You could also predict whether the stricter, congressionally-mandated actions to eliminate the DoEd will transpire, in this mirror of a Metaculus question:

Even further, Manifold views it as quite plausible that Trump’s executive order to dissolve the DoEd will succeed against court challenges, in spite of bucking the conventional pathway through the legislation branch:

And a similar playbook to what has happened across the government might befall the DoEd, with congressionally authorized grants or payroll impounded by the treasury, which Manifold views as 67% likely by the end of the year:

Manifold users expect higher backlash to these actions than previous DOGE activities, with a Google Trends-based market forecasting that the public uproar will be higher for the cutbacks at DoEd than at USAID:

While the DoEd has never been tremendously popular, pollsters have still found that the wholesale elimination of the agency is polling terribly. Thankfully the state of education among Manifold users appears to be unaffected by all this uncertainty, with multiple Manifold users appearing likely to make major international math and computing competitions, as well as placing at elite universities.

Rule of Law

The Trump administration continues to clash with federal judges, and Manifold bettors seem to share the concerns of mainstream media voices. Odds remain high that the administration will disregard the orders of federal judges, and potentially the supreme court as well, with a rising tenor to the public debate over the role of the judiciary in our society.

Manifold users also seem to think it is plausible (>40%) that Trump will take steps to pardon himself this term, an action never before taken by a US president, and that conditional on this occurring, the supreme court is unlikely to overturn it.

In general, the range of actions that the government might take appears to have broadened in scope. Markets have been created to define events that likely would have seemed highly unlikely just months ago, such as the deportation of an American citizen:

Manifold in part seems to think this is likely due to the high remaining uncertainty over whether any of the deported Venezuelan migrants that are currently at the CECOT prison in El Salvador were actually American citizens when they were shipped abroad:

Gold Cards

In general, the Overton window for immigration policy seems to have shifted in unpredictable ways, as we discussed in our last newsletter. Opening up new avenues to American citizenship could have dramatic effects on global immigration policy, the movement of peoples, flags of convenience, tax haven policies, and corporate domiciling, and it’s surprising that this potential for change hasn’t gotten more scrutiny in the media. Manifold bettors, albeit on low volume, give the Gold Card program a 46% chance of launching this year. If it does launch, it’s likely to be at low volume to start, with only about a 20% chance that the program has over 100 recipients.

The H1-B visa program—for which news is of great interest to hundreds of thousands of applicants globally, as well as a cottage industry of immigration support service companies—also appears to be up for a major overhaul. It’s unclear whether this could involve an expansion or contraction of the program, and traders are unsure if the cap will be raised this coming year:

Roundup

In other news, the market on Trump’s golf habits during his first 100 days appears that it will come down to the wire, the 4-year recession market is holding steady at about 77%, the president’s son Barron has a coin flip’s odds of entering a relationship in the next two years at NYU, and the odds of a rapid ceasefire in Ukraine have dropped sharply over the last week, as Russia appears to be pushing for a more limited “energy infrastructure ceasefire” instead.

Finally, you can join 21.2 other Manifold users at a meetup in NYC if you’re in the area (or if you’re not, you can just bet on the number of attendees):

Happy forecasting!

-Above the Fold