Above the Fold: Bountiful Manifold
Bounties, links, and a bunch of updates~
Welcome to the latest edition of Above the Fold. This week, we’re highlighting: community contributions through our bounty program, an assortment of our newest updates, and as usual, some of our favorite links and markets!
From time to time, a member of our community goes above and beyond in helping Manifold make prediction markets accessible & ubiquitous. We’d like to recognize such contributions publicly, and include a token of our appreciation in the form of M$!
Examples of community work that may be eligible for a bounty:
Blog posts, markets, or comments which lead us to significantly change our views
A track record of creating markets that help people make better decisions
Promoting Manifold & forecasting to a wider audience
Identifying serious exploits with our financial infrastructure
Our community is the beating heart of Manifold; your individual contributions are what make this platform valuable at all. Thanks to everyone listed here (as well as countless unnamed others) for your help & support!
🥧 Awarded 2022-03-14
Kevin Zielnicki: M$ 10,000
Pepe: M$ 10,000
For developing the function used in our Constant Function Market Maker and working with us to polish it on Discord, making it easier for us to provision liquidity compared to a CPMM.
Gurkenglas: M$ 5,000
For concrete suggestions on Discord around improving our market maker algorithms, and creating useful graphs to make our different market makers more legible.
Scott Alexander: M$ 5,000
For developing and publicizing the idea of providing interest-free loans on each market, helping make long-term markets more accurate.
David Glidden: M$ 5,000
For taking on the mantle of @MetaculusBot, which allows traders access to a wider spread of topics, and permits head-to-head comparisons between our prediction markets and other forecasting platforms.
Isaac King: M$ 5,000
Blazer: M$ 2,500
For calling out our mistake in retroactively publicizing all market creator’s trades, leading us to revert this feature entirely.
⛑️ Awarded 2022-01-09
Duncan: USD $50
For identifying and confidentially reporting an exploit where entering negative numbers into the trade box would allow the trade to go through.
Note: this was denominated in USD, as it predated the creation of our bounty program.
If a particular contribution isn't listed here, that doesn't mean we didn't really appreciate it. There’s so much great work by our community; we aren't always able to catch them all!
If you feel that someone's exceptional contribution has fallen through the cracks (including your own!), please consider creating a market for “Will <X> be recognized for a Manifold bounty?” and posting it on our Discord. Thanks!
Did you know that our analytics are fully public? Check out https://manifold.markets/analytics! We’d highly encourage y’all to create markets based on these stats 😁
Want to include a particular Manifold market inside another webpage? Now you can do so: from any market, click on the “Embed” button to get a code snippet that embeds the market.
We now show probabilities to one decimal place when they are <2% or >98%. H/t to Yev for the idea!
Bonus: You can now sort markets by most and least likely!
Manifold for Good: Charity Prediction Markets
We recently applied to the FTX Future Fund for a neat idea by Sam Harsimony: charity prediction markets! Basically: we’d like to enable withdrawing M$ to charities of your choice. Read more about the proposal here.
You can bet on whether we’ll win funding from FTX FF in this market; and of course, we’d love to get your feedback about whether you’d use this feature, and which charities you’d like to support!
Last Thursday, we ran a live AMA on Discord, with questions submitted through a free response market. This was a ton of fun; we really enjoyed the chance to publicly discuss some top issues that the Manifold community were interested in. Shoutout to Gurkenglas and Em of the Night for asking my favorite questions!
If you’re sad you missed out on it, no worries; we’re running another one this Thursday at 3pm PT. Post your questions here; I’m looking forward to chatting with y’all!
Manifold is running into issues on our current database, Firestore; we’ve gotten a lot of great suggestions and hit the front page of Hacker News!
We agree, it’s beautiful:
We don’t necessarily endorse creating markets just to troll people, but...