$11,000 in Prizes, 2x Trader Bonuses, Mana Rewards
Check out some of the ways you can win prizes, get swag, donate to charity, and ask your burning questions
If you’ve been on Manifold lately, you may have noticed the Prize Drawings. After 15 drawings in our first month, we’ve had $12,300 USDC in prizes on the line — and there’s a lot more coming. Here’s how it works, who’s won so far, and what’s to come.
The basics: You get entries with mana. The more mana you put in, the more entries you get, with no purchase necessary. There’s also a free entry just for showing up.
One free entry per drawing. No mana required, though you do need to have at least M1,000 invested in active predictions on the site.
Get entries with mana. More mana = more entries! The exact rate follows a bonding curve, so early entrants get a bit of an edge to disincentivise last-minute sniping.
Verifiable randomness. When a drawing closes, winners are picked using a Bitcoin block hash as the random seed. The outcome is publicly verifiable, and nobody (including us!) can rig it.
Paid in USDC on the Ethereum network, sent directly to a wallet of your choice. More on payouts and eligibility below.
Prize Drawing #2 was our biggest yet: a $10,000 prize pool split across seven ranked winners.
Bayesian took the $9,000 top prize out of 510 unique entrants and 1.74M mana spent on entries. It was great to see a highly active user get rewarded, and we continue to bring prizes to many more members of the Manifold community. It really is anyone’s game.
$100 a day, every day
We’re currently running a $100 prize drawing every single day, so everyone gets more chances to win. We have already seen two repeat winners, including DottedCalculator’s $100 USDC win in drawing #8 with only 821 entries for M200 total (a 0.52% chance to win).
Before that, we also saw phenomist win the 7th place prize ($50) in the first-ever prize drawing, holding only 0.09% of total entries (1,664).
Anything can happen, so check in every day to claim your free entry.
Eligibility, Payouts, and Charity
The (small) catch: To participate and claim your prize, we all need to play by the rules. That means you need to be at least 18 years old and not based in an ineligible jurisdiction (which includes some US states and a few countries around the world). Check out the Prize Drawing FAQ for specifics on how to qualify (and how to avoid some things that may disqualify you).
Prizes are paid in USDC on Ethereum. After winning a prize, you’ll need to connect a wallet on the respective prize page where you won.
A couple of winners from Drawing #2 still haven’t submitted a wallet. We’ve held their prizes - no one’s been forfeited for being slow… yet.
If a winner is ineligible or declines their prize, it rolls into the Charity Giveaway, which has now grown to $1,550 with these additions. Traders can convert mana into entries to boost their favorite charity’s odds. When the giveaway ends, we’ll draw one lucky entry (using the same mechanism as the prize drawings) to determine the winning charity.
The Charity Giveaway also comes with extras: the Champion Trophy and the Champion’s Legacy profile background.
With giveaways, physical merch, Manifest tickets, Manifold subscriptions, digital goods, there’s never been a better time to have mana - or buy it!
For a Limited Time: Double Trader Bonuses
As we keep experimenting, one of our primary goals is to improve market visibility and delivery on the site. Content on Manifold has always been primarily community-created and driven, which is what makes the site so great.
We’d like to see a lot more markets for both popular and niche topics, and we know that means ensuring traders will see and predict on the questions that are important to you. We’ll be rolling out some updates to content delivery, so keep an eye out for more details.
While we work on those, we’re also doubling all trader bonuses for the next 10 days.
This means, for each liquidity tier:
M100 = M6 per trader, 17 traders to break even
M1,000 = M20 per trader, 50 traders to break even
M10,000 = M30 per trader, 333 traders to break even
M100,000 = M40, 2,500 traders to break even
This will be immediate and universal, so existing market creators should already see the mana flowing!
We’re also keeping an eye out for well-defined markets asking timely or important questions, and Manifold will add to the liquidity pool to incentivise traders.
The Golden Age of Mana
Still have mana burning a hole in your pocket and want something in hand to show for it? Alongside the digital benefits, we’ve launched a series of real-world benefits to reward the best creators and predictors:
Manifest 2026 tickets — at the time of writing, there are 12 tickets left in the mana shop. Manifold subscribers get their usual shop discount, and mana can be purchased with crypto for a discount. Either option makes this the cheapest way to buy a standard Manifest ticket.
Yes, that means you can buy the Manifold Pro subscription for M2,500 and save M3,375 on a Manifest ticket immediately.
Already going to Manifest? Place your bets on the Manifest 2026 Prop Bets market. There’s a 78% chance of 10+ attendees with a Wikipedia page, 46% chance for Karaoke, and a 33% chance of someone in a full fursuit. (Have an idea for something not on this market? Add your own answers!)
Manifold merch — grab some ahead of Manifest! Physical merch, delivered to your door. The merch shop launched very recently, and we’ve already had nearly 100 successful merch orders, with an average time-to-ship of under 2 days. Merch is also discounted by site subscription.
Prize Drawing or Charity giveaways — as explained, win cash for yourself, or for the charity of your choice.
If there’s any other way you’d like to use your mana or you have ideas for fun contests, let us know! We want everyone to feel like Manifold is a good use of their time, so we can continue to be there when you want to see the future or bet on anything.
If you still haven’t made a mana purchase with crypto, you will receive +10% bonus mana on your first crypto purchase, and an additional +10% if you buy >$1,000.
*Don’t like crypto? No worries, we heard you: card payments are back!
Now, go take advantage of limited-time 2x trader bonuses, grab an entry (or a few!) to the daily prize drawing, support your favorite charity, browse the mana shop, and feel free to give us some suggestions and feedback along the way!
-Stef, Tod, and the Manifold Team
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